TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $115-125m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$207,994
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$226,942

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $207,994 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x06dc…af59backed Yes59c18,139$10,674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,464.7726041.2%107 W · 153 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-0.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x53a4…4447backed Yes78c14,587$11,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,276.0512451.6%64 W · 60 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes68c12,840$8,751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,088.6617751.4%91 W · 86 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes9c10,000$862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,137.9516624.1%40 W · 126 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes54c6,746$3,674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,072.7916350.3%82 W · 81 L+24.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+23.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes50c4,661$2,339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,322.2415059.3%89 W · 61 L+19.8wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+24.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No17c3,589$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.4818719.3%36 W · 151 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-55.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed No10c2,892$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.5732814.9%49 W · 279 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-59.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed No1c2,598$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4714212%17 W · 125 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-75.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed No5c2,574$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.313713.5%5 W · 32 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-64.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No51c2,558$1,296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,295.547252.8%38 W · 34 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked No78c2,128$1,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,670.061711.8%2 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.16per pick27cpaid-58.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x20d7…7f5cbacked Yes5c2,025$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,914.641915.8%3 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+24.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6b9…de6dbacked No57c1,938$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100.1910331.1%32 W · 71 L+0.5wins0.00per pick31cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32f4…c885backed Yes6c1,845$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,741.7816614.5%24 W · 142 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes6c1,644$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,552.763231.3%10 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick33cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a01…6397backed Yes61c1,614$982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.994553.3%24 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe391…e00fbacked No75c1,312$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985.71560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes56c1,289$724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.66732.8%22 W · 45 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4f…c44bbacked Yes15c1,193$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,014.33944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick25cpaid+31%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfae3…5228backed Yes5c1,067$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,015.73925.6%10 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick30cpaid+23.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c67…8b76backed Yes7c1,019$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$945.647030%21 W · 49 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1032…77f1backed Yes13c898.6$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$782.481822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick19cpaid-25.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f65…1592backed Yes73c868.14$635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.123831.6%12 W · 26 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed Yes63c861.98$544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.9820049.5%99 W · 101 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes47c758.72$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.9867232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No26c546.77$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.0648414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x108d…508abacked No37c539.69$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.582416.7%4 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-62.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe280…ed39backed Yes6c507.21$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.21812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick5cpaid+111.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9019…42e0backed Yes68c503.27$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.12580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+19.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes23c447.19$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.583417.6%6 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-49.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes5c446.92$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.23736.8%5 W · 68 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-50.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No40c439.93$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1756833.8%23 W · 45 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-41.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1a3f…e333backed Yes5c432.39$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.39424.8%2 W · 40 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick15cpaid-33.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3e25…7a93backed Yes73c413.61$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.78475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4041…6f52backed Yes7c399.99$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37317017.1%29 W · 141 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa98f…6a3fbacked Yes75c390.51$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.12475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No15c375.43$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.979442.6%40 W · 54 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e01…757abacked Yes4c373$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.918231.7%26 W · 56 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick35cpaid+22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x388f…4083backed No5c370.02$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.55911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-77%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes11c321.99$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.1516237.7%61 W · 101 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xac9e…a350backed No17c317$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.03333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-54%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c98…d38fbacked Yes8c312.3$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.31020%2 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick22cpaid+77.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb277…d809backed No13c307.14$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.97837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-45.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes57c300$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1298040%32 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26c6…ea7ebacked No13c296.97$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.771729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-38.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c288.13$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.681,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x057d…6eddbacked Yes5c274.76$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.761414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick25cpaid+57.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes64c271$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.23941%16 W · 23 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x079a…ee61backed Yes5c261.19$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.392910.3%3 W · 26 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick6cpaid+32.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcefc…a993backed Yes55c237.15$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.022556%14 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d8f…3c8abacked No65c231.84$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes15c195$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.753622.2%8 W · 28 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba0b…5c3abacked Yes8c191.84$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.842512%3 W · 22 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3ac…5bd6backed Yes66c183.31$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.09425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-62.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes27c168.58$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.886222.6%14 W · 48 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-39.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb36…f0afbacked Yes9c150$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.5540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+151.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf359…b879backed No35c141.23$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes35c140$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.865831%18 W · 40 L+0.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a59…b234backed Yes8c125.23$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.23650%3 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+202.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes43c118$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.611656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No56c114.57$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.3787033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x69a1…85f0backed Yes57c110.09$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.831030%3 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-46.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12b6…d759backed No20c103.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.34450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+17.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed No65c103.47$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.8480%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x08a8…3b8fbacked Yes57c101.9$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.9922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-62.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6119240.6%78 W · 114 L-20.3wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-36.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0db9…d97cbacked Yes30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.083336.4%12 W · 21 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e15…6ce6backed No20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7656…194bbacked Yes67c97.25$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.24736.2%17 W · 30 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-29.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8bc…2eabbacked No46c96$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.24130%0 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bee…ca01backed No20c80.03$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.772321.7%5 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-58%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4298…f07dbacked Yes15c80$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.24per pick47cpaid+77.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbdd0…550abacked Yes67c80$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.161353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf933…52fbbacked Yes68c79.29$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.1512240.2%49 W · 73 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf960…ba50backed No76c63.57$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.51216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.25per pick41cpaid-78.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xaffe…618abacked No47c54$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb02e…25e5backed No77c50.18$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.460%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.445042%21 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-30.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5c8…3b43backed Yes41c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.7650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b24…01abbacked Yes46c42.42$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.919851%50 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x059d…63a9backed No65c36.98$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-52.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65bf…4b91backed No41c36.07$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.611711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-73%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc039…5ecfbacked Yes61c33.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes69c28.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.991241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-38.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e52…b5e7backed Yes60c16.87$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.782100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+73.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.