Movies · resolved market
Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $115m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fe4babc523529b27d6defdc9db2fe0f32b9c202e59601f7de1b8c5f096fc832
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $380,446
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $277,588
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $380,446 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 1c | 40,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.46 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -7.5wins | -0.24per pick | 34cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x03c3…f47abacked Yes | 0c | 15,788$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 5cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes | 1c | 11,013$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.86 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 3c | 10,791$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.72 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 10,550$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.21 | 142 | 12%17 W · 125 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 3c | 10,000$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.75 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x079a…ee61backed Yes | 0c | 9,466$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 0c | 8,873$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ff…60aebacked Yes | 3c | 7,648$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.44 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 2c | 6,862$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.06 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a52…c45cbacked Yes | 2c | 6,274$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 5c | 5,488$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.86 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1032…77f1backed Yes | 13c | 4,193$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.13 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 4,093$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.32 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20d7…7f5cbacked Yes | 3c | 3,775$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.98 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Yes | 4c | 3,368$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…508abacked Yes | 4c | 3,083$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.77 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x853e…5e10backed Yes | 1c | 2,967$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac9e…a350backed Yes | 1c | 2,811$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -54%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfae3…5228backed Yes | 2c | 2,797$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…c44bbacked Yes | 8c | 2,615$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 25cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69cd…06f3backed Yes | 1c | 2,271$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 3c | 2,250$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.16 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x136e…5325backed Yes | 1c | 2,061$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 1c | 2,054$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c98…d38fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,898$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…ec5ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,484$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.95 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba0b…5c3abacked Yes | 3c | 1,357$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…8b76backed Yes | 2c | 1,303$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fe…5c7bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,182$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x917d…601abacked Yes | 2c | 1,162$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69fc…3f73backed Yes | 2c | 1,140$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 1c | 999.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 1c | 920.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa665…2c25backed Yes | 1c | 850$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26c6…ea7ebacked Yes | 1c | 792.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed Yes | 4c | 735.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe280…ed39backed Yes | 3c | 714.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +111.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 6c | 690.8$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.26 | 162 | 37.7%61 W · 101 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked Yes | 2c | 657$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ce…963bbacked Yes | 3c | 650.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98a3…b48cbacked Yes | 2c | 596$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…324dbacked Yes | 5c | 574.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 565.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa79e…52cbbacked Yes | 5c | 500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef4…ec82backed Yes | 8c | 487.23$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 5c | 430$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 10c | 421.31$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.87 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351b…4d06backed Yes | 2c | 400.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 4c | 371$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -73%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb393…e875backed Yes | 4c | 345$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee90…d959backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a0…67edbacked Yes | 4c | 333$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 282.69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…5872backed Yes | 4c | 261.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4298…f07dbacked Yes | 7c | 180$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 6c | 167.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 129 | 23.3%30 W · 99 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 17c | 147$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54d0…2b2cbacked Yes | 24c | 128.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 70c | 121.17$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.23 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb00a…624abacked Yes | 9c | 119.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…5014backed Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $115m?this page
- Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $115-125m?Yes won
- Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $125-135m?No won
- Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $135-145m?No won
- Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $145m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.