Movies · resolved market
Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $125-135m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8dd564a571ccb448a47f46c23a78356da9c3faa461ebc742b07dc0b466e629b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $259,786
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $163,526
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $259,786 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 2c | 22,777$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.03 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 1c | 10,701$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.72 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…ebe8backed Yes | 19c | 10,697$2,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,021.91 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4966…c504backed Yes | 1c | 8,052$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 66c | 7,712$5,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,607.25 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd30a…7621backed Yes | 1c | 7,505$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 6,789$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.9 | 142 | 12%17 W · 125 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d33…5a2ebacked Yes | 2c | 6,533$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.53 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Yes | 4c | 6,159$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 16c | 5,677$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.47 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…508abacked Yes | 10c | 5,393$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.34 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdd…1fedbacked Yes | 16c | 4,762$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…ec5ebacked Yes | 8c | 4,559$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.78 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Yes | 40c | 4,343$1,722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,722.16 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…8b76backed Yes | 12c | 4,033$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.65 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 2c | 3,340$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.98 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 1c | 3,103$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 20c | 3,000$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.05 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 39c | 2,447$959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.04 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…d56fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,001$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.35 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Yes | 13c | 1,771$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.94 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -58%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,699$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.09 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 22c | 1,684$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.21 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -73%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20d7…7f5cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,625$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.89 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef4…ec82backed Yes | 10c | 1,598$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.42 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,592$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.21 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 16c | 1,425$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 56c | 1,368$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.28 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfae3…5228backed Yes | 12c | 1,325$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.35 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe191…b901backed Yes | 2c | 1,287$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1854…d1a3backed Yes | 6c | 1,275$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…4f9dbacked Yes | 21c | 1,141$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.03 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 36c | 1,040$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.87 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x34e6…cd63backed Yes | 11c | 1,018$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.72 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 29c | 1,013$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.51 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 17c | 1,012$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.78 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69fc…3f73backed Yes | 2c | 1,009$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 3c | 1,002$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 59 | 20.3%12 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed Yes | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed Yes | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 6c | 880.01$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1032…77f1backed Yes | 24c | 870.18$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.7 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c69…b8ebbacked Yes | 3c | 867.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe280…ed39backed Yes | 9c | 855.19$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +111.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 22c | 839.28$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.53 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8f…3c8abacked Yes | 37c | 817.45$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe677…bc17backed Yes | 18c | 734.34$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6c…ce09backed Yes | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 27c | 709.95$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.3 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…67b5backed Yes | 5c | 700$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked No | 72c | 684.56$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.8 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e60…1408backed Yes | 15c | 668.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf680…2c59backed Yes | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebf…ae75backed Yes | 14c | 658.97$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4fb…3526backed Yes | 15c | 654.7$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba0b…5c3abacked Yes | 6c | 634.78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 65c | 600$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 15c | 533.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 24c | 530.87$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.04 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 7c | 520$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.28 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde46…a7afbacked Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa79e…52cbbacked Yes | 10c | 500$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…bdfbbacked Yes | 35c | 487.62$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.54 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…67fdbacked Yes | 24c | 447.78$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.35 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb54d…8ac6backed Yes | 45c | 443$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.35 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 416.89$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.82 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x079a…ee61backed Yes | 4c | 397.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 19c | 300$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…d97cbacked Yes | 47c | 299.96$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.35 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 29c | 294.87$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcefc…a993backed No | 78c | 287.31$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.72 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3e…1a61backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e9…bf4fbacked Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes | 14c | 275.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26c6…ea7ebacked Yes | 17c | 271.27$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 28c | 271$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.23 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff48…7242backed Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked Yes | 29c | 247.55$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes | 35c | 241.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.89 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4298…f07dbacked Yes | 27c | 240$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd268…105dbacked Yes | 27c | 234.87$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.48 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057d…6eddbacked Yes | 22c | 227.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 76c | 221.99$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.28 | 71 | 25.4%18 W · 53 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 66c | 221.7$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.8 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf960…ba50backed Yes | 37c | 215.52$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.7 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd961…a7e7backed Yes | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7034backed Yes | 17c | 200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98a3…b48cbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0931…8636backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…3480backed Yes | 10c | 195.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dd…1f26backed Yes | 35c | 188.19$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c98…d38fbacked Yes | 33c | 177.24$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.49 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x053e…6422backed Yes | 12c | 171.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ec…98c2backed Yes | 12c | 170.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9b…1056backed Yes | 16c | 168.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06bc…2887backed Yes | 12c | 164.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +168.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x787b…5c44backed Yes | 50c | 162.18$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 157.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $125-135m?this page
- Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $115-125m?Yes won
- Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $135-145m?No won
- Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $115m?No won
- Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $145m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.