World Politics · resolved market
Will LDP win the most seats in the House of Councillors following the 2025 Japan election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb82d5aec1ad294e21e835cee5ecf2f56ec40ddc925d7f30d6a7831d1679505c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $459,573
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $548,864
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $459,573 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1de…5834backed No | 13c | 16,567$2,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,110.14 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +129.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 15c | 14,801$2,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,283.23 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 0c | 10,100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 13c | 9,110$1,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,168.62 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90d2…a6b3backed No | 12c | 8,147$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.6 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 1c | 5,186$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5085…d8a4backed No | 5c | 5,000$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.07 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 12c | 4,602$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.46 | 76 | 18.4%14 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c7…e05abacked No | 10c | 4,567$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.08 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…1115backed No | 11c | 3,790$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2e…caf6backed No | 15c | 3,667$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.86 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 11c | 3,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31ec…ab04backed No | 13c | 2,721$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.27 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d3…4ca5backed No | 14c | 2,140$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…cfb0backed No | 8c | 1,525$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.96 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 8cpaid | +152.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b3…0d23backed No | 15c | 1,500$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…3860backed No | 13c | 1,422$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0417…ddecbacked No | 13c | 1,343$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.23 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…539ebacked No | 19c | 1,302$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 13c | 1,291$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.32 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa403…9cabbacked No | 15c | 1,276$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3847…5c87backed No | 12c | 950$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked No | 8c | 940.6$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.49 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf515…e56bbacked No | 6c | 802.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x258d…4fd6backed No | 6c | 713.15$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfab5…690dbacked No | 16c | 676.47$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.49 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebce…f37bbacked No | 23c | 646.73$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 15c | 631.68$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.78 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9394…37dabacked No | 21c | 503.91$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.74 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 8c | 462.21$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 15c | 454.3$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.54 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked No | 14c | 371$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.59 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa043…140bbacked No | 22c | 347.19$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…18a1backed No | 14c | 323$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50e6…e838backed No | 3c | 302.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ac…84f3backed No | 14c | 300$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.21per pick | 21cpaid | +134.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…618fbacked No | 15c | 279.39$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed No | 20c | 277.97$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.54 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x028a…fe96backed No | 14c | 269.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5d…41b7backed No | 12c | 258.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked No | 15c | 250$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39d1…5129backed No | 12c | 235.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f8…4974backed No | 14c | 183.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1847…460fbacked No | 15c | 165.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…0f76backed No | 19c | 150$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…f511backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +5.3wins | +0.19per pick | 27cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a7a6backed No | 13c | 78.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b07…b01ebacked No | 14c | 71.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf770…f4bdbacked No | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a45…9d4abacked Yes | 67c | 49.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +7.8wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will LDP win the most seats in the House of Councillors following the 2025 Japan election?this page
- Will CDP win the most seats in the House of Councillors following the 2025 Japan election?No won
- Will DIY win the most seats in the House of Councillors following the 2025 Japan election?No won
- Will DPP win the most seats in the House of Councillors following the 2025 Japan election?No won
- Will JCP win the most seats in the House of Councillors following the 2025 Japan election?No won
- Will JIP win the most seats in the House of Councillors following the 2025 Japan election?No won
- Will Komeito win the most seats in the House of Councillors following the 2025 Japan election?No won
- Will Mintsuku win the most seats in the House of Councillors following the 2025 Japan election?No won
- Will Reiwa Shinsengumi win the most seats in the House of Councillors following the 2025 Japan election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.