TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Iran strike on Israel by Monday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$263,037
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$275,432

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $263,037 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7504…9c69backed No11c21,131$2,424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,423.871450%7 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1487…7437backed No0c13,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed No15c10,543$1,626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,626.053941%16 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-28.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9622…01efbacked Yes75c10,274$7,718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,555.512748.1%13 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+29%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07cd…21bbbacked No17c9,937$1,689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,689.297247.2%34 W · 38 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No19c9,200$1,721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,721.2751138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x037e…0c63backed Yes75c7,485$5,614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,871.333336.4%12 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes78c7,474$5,854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,619.7942738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed No15c6,679$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,030.2728427.8%79 W · 205 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c9…74f1backed No4c6,674$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.699414.9%14 W · 80 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+86.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xed95…b1e6backed No18c5,974$1,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,055.293016.7%5 W · 25 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-62.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked No16c5,531$889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$888.659831.6%31 W · 67 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb049…cc61backed No6c3,971$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.6630%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed No10c3,587$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.748630.5%148 W · 338 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1388…339abacked No14c2,887$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.365922%13 W · 46 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-26.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d3d…aaecbacked No2c2,243$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x312b…cafebacked No28c2,004$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.853253.1%17 W · 15 L+4.2wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0894…cf93backed No15c2,000$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.71526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.9wins-0.20per pick46cpaid-49.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No18c1,949$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.7820549.8%102 W · 103 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes76c1,878$1,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.4736750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No18c1,841$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.7317931.3%56 W · 123 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No16c1,822$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30027233.8%92 W · 180 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x278f…715fbacked No5c1,500$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.81450%7 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x170a…74ccbacked No1c1,400$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1440%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e11…b846backed Yes70c1,349$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.751136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick24cpaid+24%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x482b…3266backed Yes77c1,300$1,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.253447.1%16 W · 18 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed No2c1,288$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.661235.7%7 W · 116 L-10.1wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-83.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa15b…30f1backed No7c1,150$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$794544.4%20 W · 25 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+70.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x008a…21a8backed No21c1,100$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2312259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed No1c1,027$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.342078.2%17 W · 190 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-88.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed No13c1,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1306633.3%22 W · 44 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+156.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb2e…0db0backed No5c993.51$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.8540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick27cpaid-14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad28…1601backed No27c975.27$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2643354.5%18 W · 15 L+4.4wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+94.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No23c969.25$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.4289617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b7e…42e9backed No26c954.51$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed No7c916.68$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.459711.3%11 W · 86 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-72.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x76b0…338abacked Yes73c913.26$665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.365642.9%24 W · 32 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xab4f…552fbacked No22c909.41$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006127.9%17 W · 44 L-10.6wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-42.4%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes70c826.47$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.4743212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x433a…71e7backed No12c803.33$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.013432.4%11 W · 23 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-40.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb46…f68bbacked No19c772.47$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.2411136.9%41 W · 70 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb555…e61bbacked No7c764.22$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.073557.1%20 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcaab…24ddbacked No18c728.8$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.168834.1%30 W · 58 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Yes71c717.52$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.418037.5%30 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad8e…709cbacked Yes79c650.76$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.662347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No10c639.47$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.4742120.9%88 W · 333 L-0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbea…19f4backed Yes79c628.67$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.264528.9%13 W · 32 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-20.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked No25c579$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.2340433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No19c578.65$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.5913629.4%40 W · 96 L-10.7wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-48.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf0dc…84e0backed No24c500$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.66425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-52.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x094e…f10bbacked No23c485$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.955745.6%26 W · 31 L-6.4wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-26.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No26c482.85$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.622333.6%75 W · 148 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+28.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x524c…64c8backed No12c459.21$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.13385.3%2 W · 36 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick16cpaid-84%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4014…f72cbacked No6c436.27$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2630%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaece…b156backed No23c434.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001020%2 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21d0…ce91backed No4c411.35$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.452560%15 W · 10 L+4.7wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+70.1%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x296e…e0e1backed Yes78c408.98$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.612540%10 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-31.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No21c407.01$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.4786542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No12c400$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4631649.7%157 W · 159 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ccf…34e6backed No28c361.05$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.3933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-43.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No17c343.43$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.671,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47d2…4c10backed Yes77c322.96$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.962458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x814a…25adbacked No23c307.6$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.755743.9%25 W · 32 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-18.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes79c272.14$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.4227047.8%129 W · 141 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7131…29ccbacked No24c257.68$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.642236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90e0…c12dbacked No9c254.22$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.282040%8 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-39.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked No10c250$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2516246.3%75 W · 87 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2528…0978backed No15c248.9$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.614757.4%27 W · 20 L+8.1wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+27.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0520…89c2backed Yes69c234.94$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.951747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2dd7…cddabacked No19c215.79$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411520%3 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-56.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x838c…5252backed No19c205.26$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-43.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3587…773fbacked No25c201.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3cc…a23abacked No22c200$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.11931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-48.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x84fd…2f81backed Yes73c200$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5419445.9%89 W · 105 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x34ec…bbb2backed No7c187.25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xada6…8bcfbacked No9c161.63$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.51050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2c4…c131backed Yes80c157.72$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.0517646.6%82 W · 94 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9f2…ddd0backed Yes74c150$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397032.9%23 W · 47 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+23%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x28f1…f8bdbacked No7c150$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.35425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2067…605dbacked Yes79c138.4$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.384100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+56.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3977…e660backed Yes80c137.67$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.673243.8%14 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8981…ce82backed No10c113.56$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.551040%4 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-25.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0376…64bebacked No20c107.19$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.464339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7740…cbcdbacked Yes78c100$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229555.8%53 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x115d…2aa7backed Yes80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick36cpaid-22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked No20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203327.3%9 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeba0…ffeabacked No14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.99742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ac…806ebacked No21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218257.3%47 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8554…25c9backed No25c96.69$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-66.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bbc…c296backed No22c89.69$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-40.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7424…3482backed No23c88.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x263f…f3c4backed No22c81.91$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.35333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-36.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x497a…993fbacked Yes77c77.52$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.534100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+53.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe685…b715backed No28c72.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-62.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x300f…d366backed No17c70.59$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127353.4%39 W · 34 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde2b…6358backed No23c70$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick37cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9313…9140backed No21c70$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ba5…4f56backed No16c65$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.52250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-16.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x135b…24f8backed Yes76c52$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.643076.7%23 W · 7 L+5.3wins+0.18per pick59cpaid+32.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.