Middle East · resolved market
Iran strike on Israel by Monday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5cc2562e6376504782efc747e28d4d877693b0360ee9d37c5ae24229e0a2054
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $263,037
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $275,432
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $263,037 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7504…9c69backed No | 11c | 21,131$2,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,423.87 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1487…7437backed No | 0c | 13,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed No | 15c | 10,543$1,626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,626.05 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9622…01efbacked Yes | 75c | 10,274$7,718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,555.51 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked No | 17c | 9,937$1,689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,689.29 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 19c | 9,200$1,721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,721.27 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x037e…0c63backed Yes | 75c | 7,485$5,614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,871.33 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 78c | 7,474$5,854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,619.79 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 15c | 6,679$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030.27 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed No | 4c | 6,674$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.69 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…b1e6backed No | 18c | 5,974$1,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,055.29 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 16c | 5,531$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.65 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb049…cc61backed No | 6c | 3,971$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 10c | 3,587$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.7 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked No | 14c | 2,887$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.36 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3d…aaecbacked No | 2c | 2,243$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312b…cafebacked No | 28c | 2,004$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.85 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed No | 15c | 2,000$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.7 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 46cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 18c | 1,949$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.78 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 76c | 1,878$1,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.47 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 18c | 1,841$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.73 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 16c | 1,822$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 272 | 33.8%92 W · 180 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x278f…715fbacked No | 5c | 1,500$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.8 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170a…74ccbacked No | 1c | 1,400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e11…b846backed Yes | 70c | 1,349$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.75 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x482b…3266backed Yes | 77c | 1,300$1,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.25 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 2c | 1,288$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 123 | 5.7%7 W · 116 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed No | 7c | 1,150$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x008a…21a8backed No | 21c | 1,100$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 1c | 1,027$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed No | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +156.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…0db0backed No | 5c | 993.51$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed No | 27c | 975.27$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +94.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 23c | 969.25$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.42 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…42e9backed No | 26c | 954.51$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed No | 7c | 916.68$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.45 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked Yes | 73c | 913.26$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.36 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 22c | 909.41$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -10.6wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 70c | 826.47$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.47 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x433a…71e7backed No | 12c | 803.33$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.01 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…f68bbacked No | 19c | 772.47$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.24 | 111 | 36.9%41 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…e61bbacked No | 7c | 764.22$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.07 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked No | 18c | 728.8$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.16 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 71c | 717.52$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.41 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…709cbacked Yes | 79c | 650.76$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.66 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 10c | 639.47$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.47 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbea…19f4backed Yes | 79c | 628.67$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.26 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 25c | 579$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.23 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 19c | 578.65$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.59 | 136 | 29.4%40 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0dc…84e0backed No | 24c | 500$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked No | 23c | 485$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.95 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 26c | 482.85$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.6 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed No | 12c | 459.21$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.13 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -84%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4014…f72cbacked No | 6c | 436.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaece…b156backed No | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed No | 4c | 411.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x296e…e0e1backed Yes | 78c | 408.98$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.61 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 21c | 407.01$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.47 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 12c | 400$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccf…34e6backed No | 28c | 361.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.3 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 17c | 343.43$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.67 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47d2…4c10backed Yes | 77c | 322.96$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.96 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…25adbacked No | 23c | 307.6$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.75 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 79c | 272.14$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.42 | 270 | 47.8%129 W · 141 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7131…29ccbacked No | 24c | 257.68$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.64 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…c12dbacked No | 9c | 254.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 162 | 46.3%75 W · 87 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…0978backed No | 15c | 248.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +8.1wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…89c2backed Yes | 69c | 234.94$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.95 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…cddabacked No | 19c | 215.79$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x838c…5252backed No | 19c | 205.26$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3587…773fbacked No | 25c | 201.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked No | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed Yes | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34ec…bbb2backed No | 7c | 187.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xada6…8bcfbacked No | 9c | 161.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Yes | 80c | 157.72$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f2…ddd0backed Yes | 74c | 150$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f1…f8bdbacked No | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2067…605dbacked Yes | 79c | 138.4$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3977…e660backed Yes | 80c | 137.67$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.67 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8981…ce82backed No | 10c | 113.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0376…64bebacked No | 20c | 107.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x115d…2aa7backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…ffeabacked No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8554…25c9backed No | 25c | 96.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…c296backed No | 22c | 89.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7424…3482backed No | 23c | 88.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x263f…f3c4backed No | 22c | 81.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497a…993fbacked Yes | 77c | 77.52$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe685…b715backed No | 28c | 72.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 17c | 70.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde2b…6358backed No | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 37cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9313…9140backed No | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba5…4f56backed No | 16c | 65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x135b…24f8backed Yes | 76c | 52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.