Space · resolved market
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch before March 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10f2508ddde636686fc2a81b99539f965810c6dbb13cfd47369b03db4ab861f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,283
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,283 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Space | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5964…776bbacked No | 3c | 3,844$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +186.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 2c | 1,916$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.78 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 5c | 1,899$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.46 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +111.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…3600backed No | 1c | 1,700$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5634…3582backed No | 1c | 1,697$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 2c | 1,554$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed No | 7c | 1,341$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked No | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.25per pick | 40cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…7dd3backed No | 4c | 527.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x254e…f194backed No | 6c | 503$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x093c…3f33backed No | 6c | 469.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa46a…05a0backed No | 8c | 445$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 28cpaid | +275.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaef…f377backed No | 5c | 438$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…1322backed No | 3c | 409.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed No | 3c | 366.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +129.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccf…34e6backed No | 6c | 342.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a10…62a8backed No | 18c | 263$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f0…97bbbacked No | 8c | 256.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1906…7413backed No | 6c | 221$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x288d…dc1dbacked No | 6c | 218$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x465e…1e4bbacked No | 7c | 213$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…dc58backed No | 10c | 210.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef77…0ef8backed No | 6c | 181$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50b7…e3cebacked No | 18c | 147$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…0cc2backed No | 15c | 110$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9b…c9f0backed No | 18c | 103$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…7da1backed No | 18c | 93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a19…aec0backed No | 18c | 89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x526f…4c4abacked No | 26c | 73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec0…f663backed No | 42c | 52.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e13…5b9fbacked Yes | 74c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x400e…04e3backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa83b…ef1bbacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…57a3backed Yes | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ab…0369backed Yes | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch before March 15?this page
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 Superheavy explode?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 Superheavy survive re-entry?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch before April?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch before March?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch by March 3?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch by March 5?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch by March 6?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 reach space?Yes won
- Will Trump attend SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8?No won
- Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 achieve a succesful splashdown?No won
- Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 Superheavy?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.