Space · resolved market
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 Superheavy survive re-entry?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x036a17ce5e7f8a6c419e062b36e52de70c11173926daadd74dd6933f7fb10999
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,322
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Space | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked No | 11c | 1,385$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.48 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 2c | 937.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec2a…81c1backed No | 6c | 897.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4440…5f67backed No | 6c | 778.93$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.56 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 2c | 667.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -4.5wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 78c | 606$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.79 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +111.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68da…ee52backed No | 7c | 567$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed No | 5c | 438.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 6c | 416.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed No | 9c | 371.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 8c | 314.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked No | 12c | 243.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed No | 8c | 220.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed No | 7c | 203$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 5c | 187$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 6c | 173$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 18cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 14c | 121.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab73…6fb6backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab7a…0924backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 Superheavy survive re-entry?this page
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 Superheavy explode?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch before April?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch before March 15?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch before March?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch by March 3?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch by March 5?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch by March 6?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 reach space?Yes won
- Will Trump attend SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8?No won
- Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 achieve a succesful splashdown?No won
- Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 Superheavy?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.