Space · resolved market
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch by March 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11362574ae6bac78e121648a2a778254042935fa4aecc01673cddd1d108266db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,782
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,844
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,782 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Space | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked No | 29c | 6,335$1,829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,829.27 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb67c…a2c3backed Yes | 70c | 5,060$3,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,515.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 19c | 3,866$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.37 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +79%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb73…f6e9backed Yes | 79c | 937.43$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed No | 18c | 913$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 29c | 855$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.75 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +111.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa39…822ebacked No | 9c | 637.6$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 71c | 627$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…e7eebacked No | 16c | 579.18$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb29…625bbacked No | 22c | 550.28$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed No | 27c | 499.99$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…776bbacked No | 12c | 469.32$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +186.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…6212backed Yes | 70c | 460$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4345…77fabacked Yes | 66c | 447.03$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe5…4e08backed No | 6c | 430$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked Yes | 73c | 400$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed No | 32c | 398.53$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.74 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +129.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 12c | 331.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 68c | 324.5$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.24 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +152.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed Yes | 69c | 322.31$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.38 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed Yes | 71c | 310$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.44 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 60cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5b…4114backed No | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked No | 27c | 297.79$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6b…fba5backed Yes | 77c | 291.14$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 65c | 282.46$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.07 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0770…184bbacked Yes | 72c | 279.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e13…a7a6backed Yes | 72c | 276.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…3600backed No | 14c | 274.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf294…5df6backed No | 30c | 270$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb38a…8237backed Yes | 73c | 267.19$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f0…97bbbacked No | 30c | 263.45$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c80…a608backed Yes | 70c | 253.05$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed No | 42c | 226.31$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.38 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +153.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x126f…7137backed No | 29c | 225.61$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…e579backed No | 38c | 218.71$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc6…949abacked No | 26c | 200.65$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed No | 37c | 200.46$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4765…c9a0backed No | 30c | 190$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 18c | 170.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 73c | 161$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.96 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…7f83backed Yes | 69c | 115.94$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 66c | 111.48$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60be…9b91backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +145.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe408…232bbacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfea1…002cbacked Yes | 77c | 98.68$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7804…7025backed No | 31c | 93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 30c | 79.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc0…cc95backed Yes | 68c | 73.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe99f…5f19backed No | 57c | 72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…3782backed No | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…d782backed Yes | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 76c | 66.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d0…abddbacked Yes | 75c | 59$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bcc…de43backed Yes | 64c | 54.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0647…8f61backed Yes | 72c | 36.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15bf…1848backed No | 34c | 31.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa386…a3aebacked Yes | 70c | 27.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1094…80ffbacked Yes | 71c | 24.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…12f6backed Yes | 67c | 22.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7e…a7b0backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb090…14c7backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe461…9a34backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch by March 6?this page
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 Superheavy explode?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 Superheavy survive re-entry?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch before April?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch before March 15?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch before March?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch by March 3?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch by March 5?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 reach space?Yes won
- Will Trump attend SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8?No won
- Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 achieve a succesful splashdown?No won
- Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 Superheavy?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.