TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Space · resolved market

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch by March 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$32,572
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$33,341

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,572 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Space
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe73e…af31backed Yes0c5,365$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes2c4,449$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a4a…3129backed Yes0c2,790$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes12c1,315$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.321030%3 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-46.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Yes36c567$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.891040%4 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+71.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed No41c421.27$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.76333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-19.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes15c374.01$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.382321.7%5 W · 18 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick12cpaid+18.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed No52c373.23$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.82333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-35.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13bb…c279backed Yes11c350$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bcc…de43backed No58c260.48$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.182100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd01f…74abbacked Yes47c258.28$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd104…7c02backed No60c249.26$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.26250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed Yes15c236.59$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.58933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+129.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7f0…97bbbacked No53c200.4$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.18333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c37…85bcbacked No50c193.5$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.45250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes62c130$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.06977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick59cpaid+71.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa568…12f6backed Yes39c123$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.84450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddc7…3ab0backed No33c107$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf01d…e7eebacked Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-56.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dd1…0310backed Yes46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5091…23e9backed No56c99.99$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+90.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2d9…e579backed No72c96.05$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.88250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3de…e227backed No55c91.38$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.34366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+5.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xff3c…6c22backed Yes60c91$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed Yes47c80$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.711931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x793f…4ee5backed Yes59c79.87$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.83785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick60cpaid+55.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb67c…a2c3backed Yes38c79.3$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-64.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x39d9…9b09backed Yes30c77.12$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-33.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9a2…3782backed No62c65$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.7250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bcb…11b2backed Yes60c56$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x979e…b606backed No40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x14e5…52f6backed Yes50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf2c…84abbacked No33c49$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e0d…f99dbacked Yes67c49$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ace…ed20backed No60c45.37$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.974100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+66.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x37c7…d542backed No33c44$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec0f…8a55backed No32c42$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeede…18c7backed No32c42$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5aa…2bf6backed Yes67c41$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e51…2e97backed No34c40$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.28per pick38cpaid+58.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94cd…324abacked No40c39$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c91…12e9backed Yes54c39$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88f4…2c10backed No32c37$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5134…c4a5backed No36c36$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b11…ed09backed Yes46c34.96$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fce…8190backed No40c34$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ae…9d47backed Yes68c34$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44f4…09f4backed No40c33$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb051…a7f7backed No78c32.14$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc615…db32backed No40c32$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x30f1…847abacked No40c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xceaa…396fbacked No43c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c88…8ad4backed No43c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x036d…a316backed No43c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad42…b70abacked No43c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdff8…cc97backed No36c29$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x86f2…01c9backed No46c28$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3699…ae6bbacked No46c28$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0647…8f61backed No76c26.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.32771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.29per pick43cpaid+55.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe343…23fdbacked Yes57c25.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55f1…fbffbacked Yes64c25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x700e…7ee4backed Yes60c25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xffb8…2674backed Yes54c24$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7f1…3712backed Yes54c24$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes52c24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.484235.7%15 W · 27 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-25.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbbee…0367backed Yes60c24$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4dfc…aefebacked Yes67c24$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8eef…8d77backed No46c24$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3748…526cbacked Yes67c22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8912…c61abacked Yes57c22$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe28f…b7fcbacked Yes57c22$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…426abacked Yes57c22$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3f5…fe2ebacked Yes64c22$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f6e…06d4backed Yes60c22$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf64a…f6e8backed Yes67c22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x744c…b439backed Yes67c21$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc51f…dabcbacked Yes67c21$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x065f…a838backed Yes54c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a5b…4114backed No55c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-39.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e93…42f2backed Yes68c19$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x715c…f377backed Yes68c19$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8883…5e83backed Yes68c19$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12ed…be48backed Yes68c19$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xddc7…e0b1backed Yes68c19$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c38…658cbacked Yes64c19$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe408…232bbacked Yes65c18.46$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1230%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1a84…9fcfbacked Yes68c18$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.