Space · resolved market
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 Superheavy explode?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9e40fc327f69e9af24e5f179c4ee818759f52d047ca32afc16bf31101acfdaa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,048
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,373
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,048 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Space | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes | 24c | 3,766$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886.56 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb29…625bbacked Yes | 16c | 3,573$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.49 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…776bbacked Yes | 23c | 3,309$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.85 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +186.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 18c | 2,464$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.36 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ba…5933backed Yes | 18c | 2,020$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 16c | 1,978$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.57 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…2a89backed Yes | 18c | 1,865$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed No | 79c | 1,803$1,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 8c | 1,663$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.11 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 14c | 1,298$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.72 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 78c | 1,177$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.57 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x421b…ac12backed Yes | 16c | 1,016$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.36 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.9wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked No | 75c | 1,004$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 76c | 660$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.67 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…53d1backed No | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e2…88bcbacked Yes | 10c | 495$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 400$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34a0…57f8backed Yes | 19c | 334.76$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49b8…762dbacked No | 78c | 308.18$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 78c | 287.62$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec2a…81c1backed Yes | 18c | 277.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5c…5731backed No | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 260.19$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.9 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0770…184bbacked No | 80c | 250.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371f…b7e6backed Yes | 20c | 244$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3eb…c286backed No | 80c | 207.5$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58db…ea03backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 19c | 177.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 23c | 165.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 21c | 161.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +129.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…92c5backed No | 79c | 125.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 20c | 116$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -67%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…ebf7backed No | 75c | 114.48$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc30c…6509backed Yes | 24c | 114.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3446…9f89backed Yes | 19c | 106.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x051f…66b0backed No | 79c | 102.61$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 18c | 100.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60be…9b91backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +145.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebf…83cebacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0b…29e9backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed9c…fd40backed Yes | 21c | 82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb73…f6e9backed Yes | 25c | 79.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 19c | 78.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x713f…22ccbacked No | 79c | 75.63$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 18cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0647…8f61backed Yes | 22c | 69.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 72c | 69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +111.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ed…7aeabacked No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.30per pick | 52cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0436…9281backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4326…6122backed No | 75c | 40.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ea…f4afbacked No | 79c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb29b…0ed4backed No | 78c | 29.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 76cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 79c | 25.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…fd7bbacked No | 74c | 22.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb498…5fbdbacked No | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12cc…275dbacked No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…fbb0backed No | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…6139backed No | 80c | 14.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x722c…79c3backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 Superheavy explode?this page
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 Superheavy survive re-entry?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch before April?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch before March 15?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch before March?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch by March 3?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch by March 5?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch by March 6?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 reach space?Yes won
- Will Trump attend SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8?No won
- Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 achieve a succesful splashdown?No won
- Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 Superheavy?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.