Space · resolved market
Will Trump attend SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x138f183cebab46154a6c83fa99e4422444b74aad4227f2c098993d1436ba5e35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,798
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,798 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Space | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed Yes | 2c | 2,500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe99f…5f19backed Yes | 6c | 2,021$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.09 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 6c | 1,356$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.56 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 3c | 451.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x452e…ecbdbacked Yes | 4c | 343$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d07…f934backed Yes | 6c | 304$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec2a…81c1backed Yes | 7c | 298.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…9314backed Yes | 4c | 289$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0665…4c8fbacked No | 73c | 248.61$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed Yes | 5c | 237$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4500…eb2dbacked Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3f…b61cbacked No | 69c | 169.72$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 70c | 160.97$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.56 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea1…002cbacked Yes | 8c | 140.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa3…0a4bbacked Yes | 8c | 136$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9d55backed Yes | 8c | 136$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc801…5789backed Yes | 8c | 133.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked Yes | 28c | 121.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -59%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8c…a517backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25ff…797dbacked Yes | 18c | 99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68d8…ea0ebacked Yes | 19c | 97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430c…37eabacked Yes | 17c | 96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aff…d8c4backed Yes | 20c | 92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…7f26backed Yes | 27c | 86.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 24cpaid | +205%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…a2c3backed Yes | 20c | 82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9059…1496backed No | 73c | 81.45$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…3e65backed Yes | 34c | 81.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d2…e578backed Yes | 33c | 78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46c…f641backed No | 63c | 70.56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +422.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 78c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb722…e064backed Yes | 17c | 65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb018…3746backed No | 68c | 47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7f…50a2backed Yes | 31c | 43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6182…f35ebacked Yes | 33c | 43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d75…dab4backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ddf…4ac6backed No | 67c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f0…9b92backed No | 69c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8b…a452backed No | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc74…f984backed No | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9531…02a3backed No | 80c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0458…7cd1backed No | 66c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9095…dc45backed No | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…f5b8backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…8457backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22fa…1e4dbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump attend SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8?this page
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 Superheavy explode?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 Superheavy survive re-entry?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch before April?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch before March 15?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch before March?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch by March 3?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch by March 5?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch by March 6?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 reach space?Yes won
- Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 achieve a succesful splashdown?No won
- Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 Superheavy?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.