TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Space · resolved market

Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 achieve a succesful splashdown?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$28,717
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$32,581

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,717 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Space
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5172…0581backed Yes4c3,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked No32c2,972$941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,031.092839.3%11 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+70.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed No58c2,540$1,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,056.941136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick22cpaid+285.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6178…f9a9backed Yes73c2,274$1,653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,652.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b5a…00f2backed No25c1,761$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,326.911020%2 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f86…54d6backed Yes71c1,449$1,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,022.8940%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7e13…a7a6backed Yes70c1,336$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$930.39366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick73cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed Yes4c1,250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick9cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes4c1,250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes69c1,060$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.66977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick59cpaid+71.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes67c1,026$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.832733.3%9 W · 18 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes73c900$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6601618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.18per pick36cpaid-69.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No25c738.4$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.41656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+62.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7ce3…a675backed No30c527$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.39850%4 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+93%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb67c…a2c3backed Yes72c495$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.35425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-64.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf3fb…b340backed Yes65c475.2$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.430%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3069…f8efbacked Yes50c457.92$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.961855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x712c…de39backed No50c457.92$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.18250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4345…77fabacked Yes68c457.04$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.15250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed No30c449.99$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3151127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes71c434$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.511154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+111.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4ba…5933backed Yes71c400$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No26c345.17$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.712321.7%5 W · 18 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick12cpaid+18.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5396…ded6backed No28c270$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1aea…abf1backed Yes72c230.29$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.81333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick73cpaid-54.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes73c210$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.491526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.16per pick43cpaid-53.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1f2c…a0a4backed No57c185.22$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.053100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+109.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0647…8f61backed No34c178.67$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.67771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.29per pick43cpaid+55.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked No57c154.79$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.181540%6 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+38%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed No33c154.78$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.1933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+129.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed No23c154$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.58633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick19cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd71a…dbd9backed Yes72c150.96$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.69580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick70cpaid+18%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24d2…92c5backed Yes72c150$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf04f…a8c4backed No28c141$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.71250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+79.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa3d…8966backed Yes71c140.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001250%6 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee75…88dabacked Yes73c139.58$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.69333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-50.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x051f…66b0backed Yes76c132.37$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick77cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x793f…4ee5backed No33c127.92$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.83785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick60cpaid+55.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa930…3f84backed Yes69c115.51$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid+57.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No31c114.08$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.121050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d51…f56cbacked No32c109.99$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.79450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9dc…9026backed Yes60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x89ae…4b0abacked No22c100$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+127.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1c6…1f3cbacked Yes75c100$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75520%1 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.41per pick61cpaid-68.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7804…7025backed Yes70c92$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.62333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-56.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a66…2e06backed Yes74c90$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc029…d08ebacked No26c90$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes75c89.04$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.783531.4%11 W · 24 L-3.5wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-28.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x95d6…4e88backed No25c84.76$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.57250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No22c84$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.221758.8%10 W · 7 L+4.6wins+0.27per pick32cpaid+76.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc30c…6509backed No55c82$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.6475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+66.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xffc1…e943backed No26c79$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb784…2f79backed Yes68c77.94$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked No75c77.83$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.43650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-34%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1102…0ee0backed Yes74c75$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked No27c73.89$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.891637.5%6 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-18.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa568…12f6backed No33c72.48$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.56450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a44…6d3fbacked Yes72c71$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.12333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid+34.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b7…d63cbacked No28c69.25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.86771.4%5 W · 2 L+3.2wins+0.45per pick26cpaid+181.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No30c68.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.772040%8 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ad9…ee23backed Yes73c65.18$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.58540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b3a…8e5abacked No26c63$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x53ed…7aeabacked Yes57c62.67$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.42666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick73cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7830…783fbacked No30c60$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+155.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked No29c55.49$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.29450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a7a…65a6backed Yes73c54.79$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+32.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes67c50$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.51421.4%3 W · 11 L-4.2wins-0.30per pick52cpaid-69.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x614e…e5a0backed Yes71c50$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+79.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3077…a6e6backed No26c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15c0…d79dbacked Yes74c50$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x71cd…912dbacked No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick18cpaid+51.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes44c47.87$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.992015%3 W · 17 L-4.5wins-0.23per pick38cpaid-75.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7e51…2e97backed No55c45.24$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.24366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.28per pick38cpaid+58.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbcd…ef0cbacked Yes71c42.25$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No29c41.43$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.284235.7%15 W · 27 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-25.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xab6a…a06abacked No27c40.74$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+270.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58bb…1bd7backed Yes69c40$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.61758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+31.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d45…b661backed No29c36$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.56475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+50.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x197e…c839backed Yes70c28.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5c9…6f2dbacked Yes74c28$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39d9…9b09backed Yes71c21.24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-33.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed Yes70c19.84$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.891931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xab60…fc4fbacked Yes57c19.3$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb29b…0ed4backed Yes72c18.71$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.47560%3 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick76cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb47…31cabacked Yes74c17$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb06b…f92fbacked Yes73c15.84$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xccfe…e319backed Yes74c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.