Space · resolved market
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 achieve a succesful splashdown?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4953f87ffaa722f842fab432eaef179029add618d99bc55667fd687081351a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,717
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,581
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,717 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Space | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5172…0581backed Yes | 4c | 3,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked No | 32c | 2,972$941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,031.09 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed No | 58c | 2,540$1,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056.94 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +285.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6178…f9a9backed Yes | 73c | 2,274$1,653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,652.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5a…00f2backed No | 25c | 1,761$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,326.91 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…54d6backed Yes | 71c | 1,449$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e13…a7a6backed Yes | 70c | 1,336$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 4c | 1,250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 4c | 1,250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 69c | 1,060$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.66 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 67c | 1,026$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.83 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 73c | 900$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 25c | 738.4$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.4 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…a675backed No | 30c | 527$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.39 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +93%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb67c…a2c3backed Yes | 72c | 495$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fb…b340backed Yes | 65c | 475.2$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked Yes | 50c | 457.92$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.96 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x712c…de39backed No | 50c | 457.92$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4345…77fabacked Yes | 68c | 457.04$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 30c | 449.99$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 71c | 434$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.51 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +111.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ba…5933backed Yes | 71c | 400$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 26c | 345.17$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.71 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…ded6backed No | 28c | 270$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aea…abf1backed Yes | 72c | 230.29$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 73cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 73c | 210$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.49 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2c…a0a4backed No | 57c | 185.22$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.05 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +109.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0647…8f61backed No | 34c | 178.67$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.67 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 57c | 154.79$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.18 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed No | 33c | 154.78$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.1 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +129.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed No | 23c | 154$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.58 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…dbd9backed Yes | 72c | 150.96$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.69 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…92c5backed Yes | 72c | 150$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed No | 28c | 141$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3d…8966backed Yes | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee75…88dabacked Yes | 73c | 139.58$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051f…66b0backed Yes | 76c | 132.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed No | 33c | 127.92$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.83 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 60cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa930…3f84backed Yes | 69c | 115.51$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 31c | 114.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.12 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d51…f56cbacked No | 32c | 109.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…9026backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…4b0abacked No | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c6…1f3cbacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7804…7025backed Yes | 70c | 92$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a66…2e06backed Yes | 74c | 90$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc029…d08ebacked No | 26c | 90$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 75c | 89.04$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.78 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95d6…4e88backed No | 25c | 84.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 22c | 84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.22 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.27per pick | 32cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc30c…6509backed No | 55c | 82$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffc1…e943backed No | 26c | 79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…2f79backed Yes | 68c | 77.94$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked No | 75c | 77.83$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…0ee0backed Yes | 74c | 75$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 27c | 73.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.89 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…12f6backed No | 33c | 72.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…6d3fbacked Yes | 72c | 71$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b7…d63cbacked No | 28c | 69.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.86 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.45per pick | 26cpaid | +181.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 30c | 68.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.77 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad9…ee23backed Yes | 73c | 65.18$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3a…8e5abacked No | 26c | 63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ed…7aeabacked Yes | 57c | 62.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7830…783fbacked No | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +155.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 29c | 55.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7a…65a6backed Yes | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.30per pick | 52cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x614e…e5a0backed Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3077…a6e6backed No | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15c0…d79dbacked Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 18cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 44c | 47.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -4.5wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e51…2e97backed No | 55c | 45.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcd…ef0cbacked Yes | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 29c | 41.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab6a…a06abacked No | 27c | 40.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58bb…1bd7backed Yes | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed No | 29c | 36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x197e…c839backed Yes | 70c | 28.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c9…6f2dbacked Yes | 74c | 28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39d9…9b09backed Yes | 71c | 21.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 70c | 19.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab60…fc4fbacked Yes | 57c | 19.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb29b…0ed4backed Yes | 72c | 18.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 76cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb47…31cabacked Yes | 74c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06b…f92fbacked Yes | 73c | 15.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccfe…e319backed Yes | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 achieve a succesful splashdown?this page
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 Superheavy explode?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 Superheavy survive re-entry?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch before April?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch before March 15?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch before March?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch by March 3?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch by March 5?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch by March 6?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 reach space?Yes won
- Will Trump attend SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8?No won
- Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 Superheavy?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.