Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during December press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fbea7f31f9cabf5616539353a9b948793736553d2e26df9cc5d6853ab41a649
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,882
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2901…f4d6backed No | 50c | 3,400$1,705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,704.54 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 51c | 2,134$1,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,043.82 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Yes | 52c | 2,000$1,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 47c | 1,188$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.55 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd02a…2921backed No | 48c | 1,064$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.67 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6f…e887backed No | 50c | 851.92$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0683…a22abacked No | 51c | 778.43$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2682…b08bbacked No | 48c | 615.16$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6d…1ba1backed No | 59c | 508.32$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 50c | 500$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9240…a7c7backed Yes | 45c | 490.99$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 45c | 476.44$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.71 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed No | 27c | 422.99$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccf…34e6backed Yes | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed No | 44c | 373.86$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.3 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa253…7630backed Yes | 48c | 368.87$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c7…147abacked No | 50c | 344.93$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed Yes | 53c | 334.85$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe14f…c1a0backed Yes | 45c | 329.98$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.49 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7355…12efbacked No | 47c | 291.82$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.42 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…de86backed No | 63c | 277.96$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 48c | 250$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.1 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c72…9b30backed Yes | 46c | 249.99$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e4…5bbcbacked No | 53c | 242$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.84 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe53d…8ab8backed No | 54c | 241$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b3…0476backed Yes | 63c | 239.51$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.51 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x845f…4fe9backed Yes | 54c | 239.43$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.44 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5362…8334backed Yes | 69c | 237.48$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 58c | 235.83$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.04 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5938…96e6backed No | 45c | 233.89$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24a…fdbcbacked Yes | 55c | 231.22$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.19 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe180…889bbacked Yes | 58c | 224.22$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16d6…2929backed Yes | 55c | 216.69$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2066…7841backed No | 47c | 214.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4d…cd61backed No | 48c | 209.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3649…530fbacked No | 47c | 206.85$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbff6…8b27backed No | 47c | 202.13$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x661e…81d6backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfacf…44adbacked No | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 51c | 199.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 36cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed Yes | 48c | 199.99$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9aa…bb40backed No | 43c | 199.97$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked No | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed No | 52c | 192.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 36cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked No | 53c | 188$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.64 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d0…a82cbacked Yes | 54c | 185.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.43 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea6…87b9backed No | 55c | 183.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067c…2d46backed Yes | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfc…f43dbacked No | 45c | 181.82$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked No | 59c | 178.68$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c8…e7acbacked No | 56c | 177.75$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.67 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ab…8231backed Yes | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0c…cfc9backed No | 54c | 162.14$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.56 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f91…d531backed Yes | 46c | 154$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4533…d575backed Yes | 56c | 150$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +46%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d31…2f85backed No | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 39c | 124.68$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.45 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f80…14cdbacked No | 47c | 115.68$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.37 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1e…b799backed Yes | 57c | 108.55$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d29…6da9backed No | 48c | 104.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5eae…558abacked No | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 52c | 103.6$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.23 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.3 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38da…ab6fbacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…61bcbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f61…bb12backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e1…fa2abacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc02…f89cbacked No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98fa…d698backed Yes | 52c | 99.98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.99 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…5003backed Yes | 52c | 99.98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.99 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55dd…8702backed No | 58c | 98.45$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee8…1805backed Yes | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33a…223fbacked No | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0773…3580backed Yes | 50c | 94$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes | 54c | 90.78$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | +456.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked Yes | 53c | 90.14$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.66 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a1…e1ddbacked Yes | 55c | 87.8$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…9ac1backed No | 46c | 86.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…f9f2backed No | 26c | 83.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba2b…4a62backed Yes | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked No | 49c | 82.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked No | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed Yes | 57c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 13c | 78.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab94…06a8backed No | 54c | 76.73$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6c…12b8backed No | 47c | 76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3a…7dcbbacked No | 48c | 72.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe00…cc23backed Yes | 48c | 72.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x705c…4e11backed Yes | 53c | 72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8e…1a3bbacked Yes | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x343c…608abacked Yes | 46c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…1a0cbacked Yes | 43c | 69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.26 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 41c | 68.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac13…6506backed Yes | 61c | 65.68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 51c | 62.11$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4107…a289backed No | 48c | 61.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during December press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Again" 10+ times during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Dissenter" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Employment" or "Unemployment" 20+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Layoffs" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pause" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Percent" 25+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Probability" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Projection" 5+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Shutdown" or "Shut down" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Sorry" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Tariff inflation" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 13+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Unchanged" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Weakening" during December press conference?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.