Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Employment" or "Unemployment" 20+ times during December press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x834b4e86a77d203192fea6a30dc443cd04fa72c47cdb505932d68e1d66f695e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,208
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,168
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,208 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd02a…2921backed No | 9c | 2,228$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 6c | 1,837$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.29 | 66 | 16.7%11 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 10c | 1,214$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.1 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x892c…46cfbacked No | 14c | 1,116$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc975…2c68backed Yes | 75c | 1,011$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…005bbacked No | 10c | 976.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…fbc5backed No | 18c | 694.52$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d0…a82cbacked No | 15c | 650$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 9c | 528.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 19c | 513.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 75c | 500$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 14c | 450.18$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.76 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…3811backed No | 15c | 410$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b9…81e5backed No | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0631…8a25backed No | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdddc…9eb0backed Yes | 80c | 324.67$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc2d…a48abacked No | 19c | 295.79$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…83bfbacked No | 12c | 280$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecc…6ee0backed No | 11c | 275$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…7d31backed Yes | 76c | 247.45$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.32 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 7c | 239.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6322…0491backed No | 6c | 234.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93c9…9942backed No | 18c | 215.13$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…2240backed No | 12c | 206.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…6f14backed No | 10c | 191.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 30cpaid | -87%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e63…3f8abacked No | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc46…c7c5backed No | 18c | 141.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 10c | 128.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed No | 9c | 125.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9f…e6c6backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed No | 10c | 122.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed No | 11c | 120$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27e4…ff39backed No | 17c | 118.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed Yes | 76c | 117.47$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.37 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…1a0cbacked No | 9c | 116.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…b07ebacked No | 24c | 115.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…622fbacked No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba1…4d1fbacked No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7b…3c9ebacked No | 11c | 89.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked No | 14c | 88.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb520…6e24backed No | 16c | 63.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…baa0backed Yes | 76c | 49.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d18…75ecbacked No | 22c | 47.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…c5d9backed Yes | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0d…d3a5backed Yes | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4384…175fbacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Employment" or "Unemployment" 20+ times during December press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Again" 10+ times during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Dissenter" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Layoffs" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pause" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Percent" 25+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Probability" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Projection" 5+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Shutdown" or "Shut down" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Sorry" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Tariff inflation" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 13+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Unchanged" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Weakening" during December press conference?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.