Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Pandemic" during December press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf461498d1b6c25b57eb9e2a61d33b6410593f6d48d891f2e0d8ebf23f509988a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,143
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,143 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ad6…464cbacked Yes | 51c | 1,065$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.06 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes | 53c | 815.52$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.45 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8b…0cb6backed No | 51c | 394.07$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa80a…937fbacked No | 47c | 393.68$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04e8…a0bfbacked Yes | 53c | 374.15$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.85 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53dd…6009backed Yes | 68c | 300$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +83.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab1…7df3backed No | 76c | 299.67$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.92 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 60cpaid | -51%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 34c | 268.75$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.69 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ee…953bbacked No | 48c | 260.42$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked No | 39c | 250$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 52c | 249.98$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.99 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 66c | 233.62$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.52 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9a…a377backed No | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3649…530fbacked No | 50c | 198.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed Yes | 55c | 183.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.39 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fba…1404backed No | 55c | 182.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2008…19dabacked Yes | 66c | 163.38$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 41c | 161.47$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.01 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c23…0266backed Yes | 55c | 150$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.14 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e85…1f81backed Yes | 61c | 148.61$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…2240backed No | 52c | 136$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.57 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 54c | 127.45$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.15 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked Yes | 56c | 124.64$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.84 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55db…8364backed No | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 45c | 120.43$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b61…7a33backed Yes | 59c | 119.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 45c | 118.02$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.16 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8dd…2813backed No | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1940…f54abacked Yes | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39b9…81e5backed No | 47c | 104.36$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.46 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa882…6a9fbacked No | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed No | 45c | 100.17$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38da…ab6fbacked No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d0…33babacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…5e33backed No | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…e6d3backed No | 47c | 98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 76c | 96.83$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a96…7508backed Yes | 55c | 91.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.27 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked No | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf684…6affbacked No | 43c | 81.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d29…6da9backed No | 47c | 76.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed Yes | 60c | 75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1952…5a39backed No | 46c | 74.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 23c | 72.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.39 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c3…a800backed No | 76c | 68.67$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.19 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6272…4e64backed No | 44c | 63.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9007…cf89backed No | 79c | 62.14$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…ae74backed Yes | 55c | 59.81$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc59c…6c14backed No | 41c | 51.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52e4…7d32backed No | 50c | 51.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 37c | 51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x845f…4fe9backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed No | 49c | 44.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -60%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9f…e6c6backed No | 45c | 44.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908e…2291backed No | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa2…c75fbacked Yes | 60c | 41.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed Yes | 53c | 41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…615dbacked Yes | 60c | 38.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dcc…0406backed No | 44c | 38.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08bf…5a79backed Yes | 55c | 36.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 38c | 35.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe7…03e0backed No | 42c | 32.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x518d…5a2cbacked Yes | 63c | 31.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68ad…c00bbacked No | 65c | 31.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7b…a54bbacked No | 45c | 31.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -62%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d6…64b8backed No | 65c | 30.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked No | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…652abacked No | 77c | 25.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80c5…168abacked No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe373…3736backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb957…d44fbacked Yes | 55c | 23.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…baa0backed No | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f4…f9bebacked No | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa5…95fdbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b8…437cbacked Yes | 55c | 18.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during December press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Again" 10+ times during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Dissenter" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Employment" or "Unemployment" 20+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Layoffs" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pause" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Percent" 25+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Probability" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Projection" 5+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Shutdown" or "Shut down" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Sorry" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Tariff inflation" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 13+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Unchanged" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Weakening" during December press conference?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.