Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Unchanged" during December press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcec211f72e2a92d6a9892e26519fb0c648aaeffd12a9081e88531961eb0e0ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,785
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,283
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,785 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 67c | 4,243$2,827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,827.4 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 58c | 2,019$1,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,176.01 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…e9f9backed Yes | 44c | 2,000$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +70%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0c…cfc9backed Yes | 33c | 2,000$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,339.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04e8…a0bfbacked No | 72c | 1,300$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936.98 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e4…5bbcbacked Yes | 32c | 1,290$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.3 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 68c | 817$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.16 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 30c | 782.93$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.05 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 52c | 781.23$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.24 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6fe…b6a3backed Yes | 48c | 746.48$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad6…464cbacked No | 72c | 700$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…e6d3backed No | 66c | 624.79$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe14f…c1a0backed Yes | 32c | 604$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.61 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 7c | 571$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +150%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 7c | 571$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +432.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb900…3d9abacked Yes | 32c | 548.71$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d2…9e4abacked No | 68c | 499.99$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e85…1f81backed Yes | 29c | 435.4$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 26c | 384.75$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.34 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b61…7a33backed No | 72c | 379.99$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.36 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 62c | 348$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.2 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f7…42a9backed Yes | 31c | 325$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.25 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 65c | 300$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82c6…f1f9backed Yes | 34c | 300$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -58%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…9c77backed Yes | 33c | 300$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked No | 59c | 299.98$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.98 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2066…7841backed Yes | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.71 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1276…8437backed Yes | 35c | 283.79$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +186.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4533…d575backed Yes | 31c | 245.78$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.59 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +46%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 31c | 223.98$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.5 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd4…194bbacked No | 70c | 216$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…0f0ebacked No | 72c | 210$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 69c | 202.94$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.96 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.18 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.58 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c23…0266backed Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299c…d85ebacked Yes | 28c | 195.75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 72c | 179.16$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa3…1df4backed Yes | 24c | 178$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…7d31backed No | 69c | 155.21$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.65 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 69c | 154.77$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.4 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadc4…9e02backed Yes | 35c | 142.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked No | 56c | 139.46$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.09 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5801…a4afbacked No | 40c | 124.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 60c | 124.37$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.65 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed Yes | 42c | 122.34$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.42 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9c…26dfbacked Yes | 33c | 121.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.2 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 56c | 121$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.56 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46a4…60dabacked Yes | 25c | 113.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.82 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Yes | 26c | 100.74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.95 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe117…b4e7backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…37c1backed Yes | 32c | 98.38$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +215.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55dd…8702backed Yes | 59c | 95.83$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 45c | 82$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…d82cbacked No | 66c | 80$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +59%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94e6…380cbacked Yes | 31c | 75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 25cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 37c | 74.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c8…1441backed Yes | 46c | 72.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef0…88abbacked Yes | 34c | 71.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.07 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ec…13acbacked Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.89 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1940…f54abacked Yes | 34c | 64.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.71 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7166…643dbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe860…c3d2backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 67c | 50.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4da3…eb83backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x867c…893abacked Yes | 32c | 48.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0aec…0911backed Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 42c | 42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 46c | 41.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…ba4cbacked Yes | 32c | 38.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +208.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc12…eb59backed Yes | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Yes | 32c | 33.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecf8…684abacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 68c | 31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00e0…8a94backed Yes | 67c | 29.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6512…78c9backed Yes | 54c | 29.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5086…5080backed Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed No | 63c | 24.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x569f…5561backed Yes | 54c | 24.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…dd0ebacked No | 68c | 23.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 49c | 20.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 76c | 15.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 79c | 13.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Unchanged" during December press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Again" 10+ times during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Dissenter" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Employment" or "Unemployment" 20+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Layoffs" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pause" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Percent" 25+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Probability" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Projection" 5+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Shutdown" or "Shut down" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Sorry" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Tariff inflation" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 13+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Weakening" during December press conference?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.