Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Tariff" 13+ times during December press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a303ec1501237248fc59ac90e27a9536dbb909102b306e977d4b1a51fe36f3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,835
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,721
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,835 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4533…d575backed Yes | 36c | 1,345$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.92 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +46%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed No | 63c | 682.9$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2901…f4d6backed Yes | 40c | 474.94$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.13 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 39c | 472.24$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.1 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked No | 64c | 350$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.5 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked No | 57c | 300$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6365…5cbfbacked No | 66c | 294.65$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6d…1ba1backed No | 55c | 273.84$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 14c | 250$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b61…7a33backed Yes | 39c | 249.98$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.49 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 51c | 199.95$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.51 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 32c | 176.71$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.24 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac6c…a297backed No | 67c | 170$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d0…a82cbacked No | 61c | 164.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked No | 63c | 158.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe14f…c1a0backed Yes | 33c | 149.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.49 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 49c | 148.06$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.55 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 62c | 148.06$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.8 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed No | 70c | 143.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 31c | 139.91$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.63 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 28c | 131.18$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.71 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b3…c41fbacked Yes | 66c | 103.07$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x226c…5541backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5417…83dabacked No | 70c | 99.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…71aebacked No | 63c | 94.84$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.26per pick | 65cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 66c | 82.67$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.87 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed No | 59c | 80$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 76.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.7 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4c…3486backed Yes | 37c | 70$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8402…990fbacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcca…da80backed No | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 57.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.15 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 62c | 57.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9de2…3adbbacked No | 70c | 56.51$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4a…14d2backed Yes | 26c | 56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +213.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1199…d5f9backed Yes | 29c | 51.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48c6…d483backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -43%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Yes | 29c | 47.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 43c | 43.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb4…337ebacked Yes | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e86…6bc9backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94f9…9828backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21e2…e456backed Yes | 30c | 39.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc59c…6c14backed Yes | 30c | 36.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe19e…adbfbacked No | 63c | 34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed Yes | 40c | 33.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…c3c4backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 40c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…dd0ebacked No | 62c | 31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x569f…5561backed Yes | 37c | 30.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ec…13acbacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 62c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e63…3f8abacked No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2143…89a0backed Yes | 40c | 29.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +148.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb3…a352backed No | 64c | 29.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b27…8d42backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 63c | 26.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58a2…5248backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf0…88f7backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…76f2backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +5.6wins | +0.26per pick | 59cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked No | 60c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed No | 65c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 71c | 19.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37f4…8697backed No | 63c | 15.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde93…da1abacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 13+ times during December press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Again" 10+ times during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Dissenter" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Employment" or "Unemployment" 20+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Layoffs" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pause" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Percent" 25+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Probability" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Projection" 5+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Shutdown" or "Shut down" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Sorry" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Tariff inflation" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Unchanged" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Weakening" during December press conference?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.