Fed Rates · resolved market

Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during December press conference?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d8d285eeca53313628576fbb8004be9bf121cb607888d46b77af8e9ade1504c

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 10, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $25,694
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $23,517

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,694 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xdb60…137abacked Yes	16c	1,108$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	14cpaid	-90.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes	6c	1,079$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.05	94	14.9%14 W · 80 L	-5.3wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-56.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Yes	12c	886.38$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.79	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.9wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe117…b4e7backed Yes	12c	832$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.84	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	-53%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d45…652abacked Yes	48c	825.17$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.15per pick	65cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a6d…b3febacked Yes	5c	802.69$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.27	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa058…3fd5backed Yes	15c	665.13$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2853…3482backed No	70c	647.59$451 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$196.74	14	78.6%11 W · 3 L	+2.8wins	+0.20per pick	59cpaid	+44%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes	16c	609.31$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.13	77	37.7%29 W · 48 L	+4.6wins	+0.06per pick	32cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked No	75c	563.44$424 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$139.86	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	37cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes	12c	563.28$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.17	86	26.7%23 W · 63 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	25cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f80…14cdbacked Yes	13c	550.6$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.55	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	-1.9wins	-0.08per pick	39cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec14…7fafbacked Yes	10c	533.14$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa579…22e7backed Yes	8c	499.99$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9be…d2b1backed Yes	5c	499.99$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes	9c	494.43$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.11	190	26.3%50 W · 140 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x170b…0e1bbacked Yes	59c	490$291 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$290.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.45per pick	45cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1b0…5419backed Yes	16c	478.51$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x042b…bbf1backed Yes	14c	441.68$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.84	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3ee…4449backed Yes	14c	365.34$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	10cpaid	+1,328.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77ed…2d0abacked Yes	25c	356.8$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.7	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc2d…a48abacked Yes	18c	344.84$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.6	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x46a4…60dabacked Yes	16c	341.34$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.96	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+1.5wins	+0.15per pick	15cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked No	9c	305.92$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$278.38	21	57.1%12 W · 9 L	+9.2wins	+0.44per pick	14cpaid	+420%equal weight	72+0.20 edge/pick
0x4cf1…ee87backed Yes	6c	300$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x8355…1071backed Yes	10c	300$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc2e…ae9abacked Yes	60c	289.99$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.60per pick	60cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	11c	268.38$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.07	36	5.6%2 W · 34 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-81.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa34e…a675backed Yes	15c	267.62$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes	14c	240.53$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.24	103	24.3%25 W · 78 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e52…9434backed Yes	15c	220$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-3.0wins	-0.27per pick	36cpaid	-87.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6e85…1f81backed Yes	16c	215.32$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.66	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+27%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55db…8364backed Yes	15c	202.47$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes	14c	199.99$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	57	47.4%27 W · 30 L	+4.6wins	+0.08per pick	39cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7d0…b0a8backed Yes	25c	195.84$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.59	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes	13c	154.85$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.61	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x932b…64c0backed Yes	13c	149.99$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.5	24	12.5%3 W · 21 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-62.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0509…6e98backed Yes	15c	143.25$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.31	30	43.3%13 W · 17 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b2…9ac1backed Yes	14c	142.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-2.6wins	-0.43per pick	43cpaid	-100%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf707…e8cebacked Yes	13c	131.31$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.07	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb77f…f024backed Yes	9c	120$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x609b…99c8backed Yes	18c	118.78$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d7d…928abacked Yes	17c	116.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f85…8693backed Yes	16c	112.7$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.91	29	6.9%2 W · 27 L	-1.6wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-84.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x00e0…8a94backed Yes	19c	105.26$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b7…d63cbacked Yes	20c	100.34$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87f1…77c2backed Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99d1…ee7abacked Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4da3…eb83backed Yes	13c	99.98$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.11per pick	29cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c82…3811backed Yes	14c	97.24$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6272…4e64backed Yes	21c	71.34$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.76	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.9wins	-0.21per pick	55cpaid	-51.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf06f…f8a8backed Yes	20c	66.92$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9da3…a7efbacked Yes	24c	62.5$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfaa8…4bffbacked Yes	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbde5…c3bfbacked Yes	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf00…76f2backed No	57c	35.38$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.38	21	85.7%18 W · 3 L	+5.6wins	+0.26per pick	59cpaid	+47.1%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x6606…1338backed No	80c	34.88$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.98	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f3…e279backed No	73c	30$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.1	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.19per pick	48cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfdb…703dbacked No	45c	30$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.5	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab26…9656backed No	80c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.3wins	-0.22per pick	55cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No	76c	14.99$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.56	138	29.7%41 W · 97 L	-13.4wins	-0.10per pick	39cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during December press conference?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event