Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Sorry" during December press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbeb72564490bf3b0213dfff3181d40121ed898775bf9026886eedc373b568ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,899
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,483
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,899 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes | 73c | 4,144$3,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100.8 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 75c | 1,612$1,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.21 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…e9f9backed Yes | 78c | 1,172$914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.92 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +70%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5b…1edcbacked No | 26c | 1,142$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4533…d575backed No | 25c | 999.98$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +46%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed No | 28c | 828.5$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.91 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01d1…8c91backed No | 22c | 750$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 27c | 632.49$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.67 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab1…7df3backed No | 53c | 599.07$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.03 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 60cpaid | -51%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…c5d9backed No | 4c | 560$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d1…9cdcbacked No | 25c | 520$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed No | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe14f…c1a0backed Yes | 71c | 422$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.38 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad6…464cbacked Yes | 74c | 398.32$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.38 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaefa…f98ebacked No | 28c | 359$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfd…946bbacked Yes | 72c | 358$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x181b…ba1fbacked No | 4c | 324.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes | 72c | 313.33$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed Yes | 76c | 299.99$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…7d31backed Yes | 74c | 250$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.22 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 67c | 250$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 36cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4db…ef1fbacked No | 30c | 249.92$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.41 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d1…33cfbacked No | 25c | 240.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca2…bde7backed No | 76c | 233.3$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d37…2f72backed No | 25c | 224.76$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee8…b211backed No | 27c | 222.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b34…c545backed Yes | 45c | 219.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3649…530fbacked No | 46c | 218.27$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd8…5783backed Yes | 73c | 201.59$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98fa…d698backed Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae0…4590backed No | 28c | 198$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed Yes | 72c | 198$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed No | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 36cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed No | 32c | 181.57$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…c2febacked No | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 71c | 168.94$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x661e…81d6backed No | 55c | 165.56$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a6…1a88backed No | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x634f…8295backed No | 25c | 154.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe19e…adbfbacked No | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 50c | 142.18$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.81 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52ed…b8c2backed No | 32c | 140.63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e8…24adbacked Yes | 75c | 135.94$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 77c | 135.28$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa2…c75fbacked Yes | 76c | 131.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 75c | 130.56$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 74c | 124.95$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c38…c1c5backed No | 25c | 121.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Yes | 71c | 120$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…986abacked Yes | 63c | 119.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.39 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53dd…6009backed Yes | 45c | 119.4$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +83.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa5…95fdbacked No | 26c | 114.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…1a0cbacked No | 20c | 113.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9816…80febacked No | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…f3f8backed Yes | 72c | 108$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 21c | 102.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87df…1892backed No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38da…ab6fbacked No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88ff…fa1bbacked No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43c4…ea38backed No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe280…f4d9backed Yes | 62c | 99.98$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73e6…9e49backed Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a34…3079backed No | 23c | 93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908e…2291backed No | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e4…5bbcbacked No | 23c | 90.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 36c | 88.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9f…e6c6backed No | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5885…6562backed No | 28c | 86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4d…cd61backed No | 24c | 83.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf680…2c59backed No | 39c | 80.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -79%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…0f0ebacked No | 25c | 79.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc12…eb59backed No | 25c | 79.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…6f14backed No | 27c | 74.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 30cpaid | -87%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1774…afb3backed No | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed No | 27c | 73.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed No | 23c | 73.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27e4…ff39backed No | 28c | 70.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b61…7a33backed Yes | 74c | 69.98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb12…6a49backed Yes | 49c | 69.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6c…7597backed No | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9253…848dbacked No | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…9c77backed No | 27c | 65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc844…5978backed No | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc973…05d9backed No | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…5d94backed No | 31c | 58.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 24c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x716d…eaf2backed Yes | 63c | 53.47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…7aafbacked No | 23c | 51.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c9…8beabacked No | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a23…31c3backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb422…c315backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4da3…eb83backed Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…73adbacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…872cbacked Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffbc…b889backed Yes | 76c | 49.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +133.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 31c | 49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Sorry" during December press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Again" 10+ times during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Dissenter" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Employment" or "Unemployment" 20+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Layoffs" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pause" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Percent" 25+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Probability" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Projection" 5+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Shutdown" or "Shut down" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Tariff inflation" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 13+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Unchanged" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Weakening" during December press conference?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.