Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Weakening" during December press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19d49ccece7e1e077d2fa4135f60cd9c22f83c85c37e6e721d4acaa885e0690c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,922
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,922 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e86…29abbacked Yes | 2c | 10,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4533…d575backed No | 38c | 701.2$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.73 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +46%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc90…00aebacked No | 33c | 655$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.09 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 3c | 534.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…61bcbacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 27c | 321.59$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.76 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 75c | 250$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.5 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed Yes | 59c | 236$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd44…1837backed No | 41c | 235$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a10…e7d3backed Yes | 59c | 213.03$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed No | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46a4…60dabacked No | 48c | 182.27$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.12 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b11…ea8abacked Yes | 77c | 182.1$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f85…e5a3backed No | 41c | 134$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked No | 41c | 111$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +109.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc3…648ebacked Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…5e33backed Yes | 58c | 99.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8dd…2813backed Yes | 65c | 97.8$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.57 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 33c | 92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.02 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 25c | 90$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed No | 31c | 89.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.09 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6272…4e64backed Yes | 69c | 80.63$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.26 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 66c | 74.05$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x661e…81d6backed No | 42c | 73.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40a2…3963backed Yes | 68c | 67$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 29c | 65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.85 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 28c | 64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes | 74c | 54.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f80…14cdbacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…a0e2backed Yes | 70c | 45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x226c…5541backed Yes | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…0f0ebacked No | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x716f…a51fbacked Yes | 63c | 39.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…7aafbacked Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6063…22cebacked Yes | 67c | 29.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32e6…9b62backed Yes | 60c | 29.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf684…6affbacked Yes | 69c | 21.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ec…13acbacked Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4e…5bf4backed Yes | 57c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Yes | 73c | 19.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0546…594bbacked Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Weakening" during December press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Again" 10+ times during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Dissenter" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Employment" or "Unemployment" 20+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Layoffs" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pause" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Percent" 25+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Probability" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Projection" 5+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Shutdown" or "Shut down" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Sorry" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Tariff inflation" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 13+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Unchanged" during December press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.