Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Percent" 25+ times during December press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b35a364a7a6ff017d73f58a7dd40630b79e660366e828053f6bfd1cb206ccd2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,961
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,961 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2901…f4d6backed No | 32c | 15,182$4,881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,880.52 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad6…464cbacked Yes | 67c | 8,478$5,667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,810.26 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a1…3529backed Yes | 56c | 6,547$3,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,858.82 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed Yes | 42c | 3,918$1,646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,271.39 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 59cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab3…b750backed No | 3c | 3,659$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e22…88a5backed No | 5c | 1,830$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…75c8backed No | 1c | 1,490$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0c…cfc9backed Yes | 54c | 1,453$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.77 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab7b…f350backed No | 7c | 1,342$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.54 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 9c | 1,252$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.13 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc975…2c68backed No | 36c | 1,192$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.54 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 52c | 1,139$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.42 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 43c | 1,050$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.14 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…6a01backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +508.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…e9f9backed Yes | 63c | 937.91$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.42 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +70%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf3…213abacked Yes | 77c | 854.48$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…511bbacked No | 1c | 733.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes | 73c | 708.98$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.35 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c33…fd26backed No | 8c | 656.17$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf0…fd08backed Yes | 56c | 598.57$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4533…d575backed Yes | 63c | 559$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.54 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +46%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 11c | 508.57$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.63 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +9.2wins | +0.44per pick | 14cpaid | +420%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked No | 43c | 461.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x908e…2291backed Yes | 51c | 392.7$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 52c | 354.56$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.71 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked No | 7c | 327.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb433…7705backed No | 10c | 311.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…c5d9backed No | 4c | 301.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc419…1372backed Yes | 66c | 300.41$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2f…d8f8backed No | 29c | 300$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2066…7841backed No | 39c | 258.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 46c | 240$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.4 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31b3…c41fbacked Yes | 46c | 218.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.51 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x661e…81d6backed No | 55c | 182.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f52…a35abacked Yes | 46c | 181$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +103%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 24c | 179.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.78 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +6.1wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd02a…2921backed No | 52c | 176.15$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf666…8842backed No | 54c | 139$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac6c…a297backed Yes | 70c | 138.17$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 11c | 137.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d11…a3b8backed Yes | 52c | 132.51$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.95 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed No | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 36cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed Yes | 51c | 122.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.27 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21e2…e456backed Yes | 50c | 110$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…8f14backed No | 14c | 105.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfacf…44adbacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b48…050cbacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe280…f4d9backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a34…3079backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe14f…c1a0backed Yes | 58c | 99.98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b61…7a33backed Yes | 65c | 99.75$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadda…27debacked No | 13c | 98.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfec…09a7backed No | 54c | 79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 47c | 76.64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.93 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 47c | 73.77$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.86 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed No | 50c | 70.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f36…4f21backed Yes | 72c | 68.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f2…3ca1backed No | 54c | 66.11$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef26…db5abacked No | 34c | 65.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067c…2d46backed Yes | 77c | 65.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…872cbacked Yes | 67c | 65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4af…5050backed No | 39c | 64.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked No | 47c | 64.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…0f0ebacked Yes | 63c | 62$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…a0e2backed Yes | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe285…40e6backed No | 32c | 59.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0abd…869abacked Yes | 63c | 58.57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9b…43f0backed No | 33c | 52.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff8d…57dcbacked No | 42c | 52.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 35c | 52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3964…e72bbacked No | 39c | 51.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd83a…3609backed No | 51c | 50.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…b54dbacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…548fbacked No | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6f…e6c6backed No | 25c | 48.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e63…3f8abacked No | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 51c | 40.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +4.0wins | +0.25per pick | 31cpaid | +135%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9c65…845dbacked Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1940…f54abacked Yes | 61c | 39.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8de…21f7backed No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12a9…4aadbacked No | 56c | 38.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 60c | 38.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 53cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed No | 62c | 38.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 36c | 38.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7950…1d42backed No | 32c | 31.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 35c | 31.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa14…f533backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48c6…d483backed Yes | 67c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -43%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x518d…5a2cbacked Yes | 69c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…d453backed No | 50c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca16…f878backed Yes | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe078…e707backed Yes | 65c | 23.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 66c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Yes | 51c | 21.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 62c | 20.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…852fbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Percent" 25+ times during December press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Again" 10+ times during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Dissenter" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Employment" or "Unemployment" 20+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Layoffs" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pause" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Probability" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Projection" 5+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Shutdown" or "Shut down" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Sorry" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Tariff inflation" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 13+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Unchanged" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Weakening" during December press conference?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.