Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Pause" during December press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xccbbe0dbdfd04dde1a57e91f3fa3815016064a0d899a7b737d21d398971ab69f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,922
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,512
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,922 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeac8…bca4backed No | 2c | 3,628$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,544.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +819.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…4449backed No | 1c | 1,781$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,763.49 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +1,328.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 12c | 1,285$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,135.1 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +9.2wins | +0.44per pick | 14cpaid | +420%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…7d31backed No | 49c | 1,186$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.92 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 57c | 1,049$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.99 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 7c | 636.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed No | 65c | 474.43$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.41 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4533…d575backed No | 57c | 368.86$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.93 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +46%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 300$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc90…00aebacked No | 55c | 300$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.41 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 57c | 297.37$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.87 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab7b…f350backed No | 69c | 284.22$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.56 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a1…3529backed Yes | 49c | 274.51$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.51 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f7…42a9backed Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 36c | 250$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x861f…a189backed No | 51c | 247.33$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +146.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad6…464cbacked No | 38c | 246.73$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.06 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe14f…c1a0backed No | 47c | 241.68$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.09 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 51c | 225.88$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.59 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9a…a377backed No | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe860…c3d2backed Yes | 50c | 199.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6438…56fabacked Yes | 67c | 199.01$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2066…7841backed No | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fc…4324backed Yes | 63c | 184$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7833…3f14backed No | 58c | 158.43$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f80…14cdbacked Yes | 56c | 150$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.78 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed Yes | 41c | 130.92$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.29 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 40c | 123.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.42 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b61…7a33backed No | 68c | 120$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05e4…b365backed Yes | 48c | 114.57$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 64c | 101.48$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.93 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc3…648ebacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 60c | 99.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Yes | 66c | 99.62$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 36cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xffbc…b889backed No | 11c | 96.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +133.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c9…0dfebacked Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…1a0cbacked Yes | 41c | 90.15$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…2078backed Yes | 13c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…a0b7backed Yes | 56c | 89.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…9bf4backed Yes | 54c | 88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…251cbacked Yes | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9c…26dfbacked No | 51c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07ce…3c44backed Yes | 55c | 70.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6272…4e64backed Yes | 51c | 65.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fce…230cbacked Yes | 55c | 64.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a96…7508backed Yes | 39c | 63.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecc…6ee0backed Yes | 47c | 62.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed No | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4af…5050backed No | 42c | 59.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 50.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5086…5080backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb12…6a49backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d0…a111backed Yes | 50c | 49.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8d…cd06backed No | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ec…deb6backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1290…a62dbacked Yes | 43c | 46.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01d1…8c91backed Yes | 76c | 44.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 60c | 44.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00e0…8a94backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 45c | 40.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…5fadbacked Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Yes | 36c | 39.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 70c | 39.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1c…4d95backed No | 66c | 39.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 35c | 38.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed Yes | 32c | 37.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e7…2b53backed Yes | 43c | 37.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…9ac1backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0aec…0911backed Yes | 34c | 35.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 49c | 34.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e50…7a6bbacked No | 35c | 31.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 42c | 30.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1940…f54abacked No | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…6d9cbacked No | 61c | 27.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8d…84bcbacked Yes | 68c | 27.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +1,065.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed No | 60c | 26.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb4…337ebacked Yes | 66c | 22.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0abd…869abacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…76f2backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +5.6wins | +0.26per pick | 59cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 61c | 17.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Pause" during December press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Again" 10+ times during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Dissenter" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Employment" or "Unemployment" 20+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Layoffs" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Percent" 25+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Probability" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Projection" 5+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Shutdown" or "Shut down" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Sorry" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Tariff inflation" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 13+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Unchanged" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Weakening" during December press conference?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.