Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during December press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60c0bcbdeb31c3dfca61c982e4b604367342980d0ab5d69ad266bf38f2861ab3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,735
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4181…de86backed No | 14c | 2,847$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2901…f4d6backed Yes | 25c | 2,144$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,606 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 27c | 1,900$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,395.96 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 21c | 1,346$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,063.73 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed No | 74c | 1,329$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.45 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 23c | 1,216$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.66 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 74c | 1,161$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.77 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb433…7705backed No | 4c | 1,152$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…ea5abacked No | 74c | 1,018$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…e8a8backed No | 79c | 953.42$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6fe…b6a3backed No | 26c | 835.4$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked No | 76c | 750.44$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.31 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ad…45ccbacked No | 73c | 688.68$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 615.38$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.38 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed Yes | 27c | 599.99$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27b8…b68cbacked No | 2c | 565.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -29%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a1…3529backed Yes | 70c | 540.04$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.01 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…2240backed Yes | 25c | 500$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c1…c734backed No | 77c | 494.1$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b3…0476backed Yes | 32c | 473.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 24c | 423.73$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.02 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb900…3d9abacked Yes | 23c | 422.44$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.79 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfc…f43dbacked No | 74c | 400$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b3…40d4backed No | 75c | 396.48$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.36 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…baa0backed No | 73c | 390$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.7 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3999…90cfbacked Yes | 30c | 346.78$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +234.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c33…fd26backed No | 74c | 341.82$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3649…530fbacked No | 40c | 338.65$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.03 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x038f…ba58backed Yes | 25c | 323.78$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c5…feeabacked No | 65c | 300$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…7d31backed Yes | 72c | 300$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 23c | 299.81$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.86 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 36cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe180…889bbacked Yes | 24c | 298.43$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x569f…5561backed Yes | 70c | 289.86$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.67 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63d4…a2f1backed No | 45c | 261.95$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…c5d9backed No | 23c | 260$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd121…b5fcbacked Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce6…60e3backed Yes | 28c | 243$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked No | 79c | 225.51$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3838…2c6fbacked No | 17c | 219.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d31…2f85backed No | 39c | 208.78$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc02…f89cbacked No | 46c | 199.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 28c | 194.06$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.78 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaec…dd15backed No | 10c | 179.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a4…60dabacked Yes | 28c | 173.21$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.13 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…511bbacked Yes | 11c | 169.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.19 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed No | 17c | 166.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 165.4$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.62 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccf…34e6backed Yes | 28c | 164.32$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 73c | 150.83$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.61 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb506…a470backed No | 41c | 146.37$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…c92abacked No | 71c | 141.17$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…861bbacked No | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64d1…9cdcbacked No | 72c | 138.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fba…1404backed No | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2066…7841backed No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…1a0cbacked Yes | 23c | 120$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.9 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6300…7b4fbacked Yes | 36c | 116.9$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac13…6506backed Yes | 26c | 113.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.45 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 27c | 111.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.47 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed No | 77c | 110$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.26 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed Yes | 23c | 109.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.7 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3198…ea2bbacked No | 73c | 109.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 26c | 104.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.55 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…71aebacked No | 77c | 103.9$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.26per pick | 65cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x85c9…8beabacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d11…a3b8backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x373f…1878backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b61…7a33backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.94 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +461.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b48…050cbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f61…bb12backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a34…3079backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1774…afb3backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe408…677fbacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…5a9abacked Yes | 20c | 97.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +396%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x661e…81d6backed Yes | 38c | 97.36$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.36 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d9…bd72backed Yes | 31c | 96.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +419.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf707…e8cebacked No | 19c | 93.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x845f…4fe9backed Yes | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.59 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0abd…869abacked No | 26c | 90$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3675…2bfdbacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 79c | 83.85$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.27 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01a…bf29backed No | 36c | 82.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 17c | 79.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe078…e707backed No | 72c | 75.23$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 59c | 73.65$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78fc…0c79backed No | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8dd…2813backed No | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf03d…2bcfbacked No | 76c | 65.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef0…88abbacked No | 18c | 63.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89d5…591bbacked No | 73c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32aa…60adbacked Yes | 24c | 58.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf684…6affbacked Yes | 25c | 56.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed No | 77c | 54.05$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.62 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…3b87backed Yes | 21c | 53.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +383.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc23a…9e6fbacked Yes | 28c | 52.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff8d…57dcbacked No | 77c | 50.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during December press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Again" 10+ times during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Dissenter" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Employment" or "Unemployment" 20+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Layoffs" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pause" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Percent" 25+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Probability" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Projection" 5+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Shutdown" or "Shut down" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Sorry" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Tariff inflation" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 13+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Unchanged" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Weakening" during December press conference?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.