Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Dissenter" during December press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2ff73a30aedd66794b320a40fe78e70a8bc0de7b7a2317834d98f4a5b659736
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,154
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,735
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,154 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 23c | 499.32$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.52 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 17c | 402.88$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.66 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 20c | 249.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9c…ad87backed Yes | 9c | 238.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…30a8backed Yes | 19c | 219.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc713…891fbacked No | 80c | 218$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 11c | 148$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be1…cb56backed Yes | 20c | 128$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 20c | 119.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed No | 80c | 115$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b61…7a33backed No | 80c | 110$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x980f…778cbacked Yes | 19c | 105$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a96…7508backed Yes | 23c | 100.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…ec98backed Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed Yes | 19c | 73.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8dd…2813backed No | 79c | 66.67$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 18c | 58.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc9…fa88backed Yes | 39c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf905…bee8backed No | 73c | 43.62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Yes | 40c | 37.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1940…f54abacked Yes | 42c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 78c | 33.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5e…1773backed No | 78c | 25.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…76f2backed No | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +5.6wins | +0.26per pick | 59cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 80c | 14.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.88 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 77c | 13.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Dissenter" during December press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Again" 10+ times during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Employment" or "Unemployment" 20+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Layoffs" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pause" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Percent" 25+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Probability" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Projection" 5+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Shutdown" or "Shut down" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Sorry" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Tariff inflation" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 13+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Unchanged" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Weakening" during December press conference?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.