Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Tariff inflation" during December press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7a84699bb3988e6146d3ffa26c673b7c9a7e1844f4c0123184513b95ca5a976
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,696
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,995
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,696 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc90…00aebacked No | 52c | 3,163$1,637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,636.59 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed No | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 5cpaid | +220.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 45c | 2,479$1,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,370.4 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 2c | 1,875$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +9.2wins | +0.44per pick | 14cpaid | +420%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x10b3…40d4backed No | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked Yes | 50c | 707.65$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.83 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed No | 61c | 701.71$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.69 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…e9f9backed Yes | 60c | 596.88$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.75 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +70%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 25c | 500$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b3…0476backed Yes | 61c | 328.9$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 43c | 249.99$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.49 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f7…42a9backed Yes | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 45c | 164.65$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.95 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b61…7a33backed Yes | 43c | 163.88$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.41 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 76c | 160.66$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x303c…4487backed No | 47c | 160.13$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 58c | 140$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57cf…1be2backed Yes | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 45c | 119.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d0…33babacked No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…872cbacked No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.95 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a34…3079backed No | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e4…abdfbacked No | 38c | 96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d11…a3b8backed No | 48c | 91$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeebf…c7b5backed Yes | 46c | 90$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.7 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 24c | 88.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.69 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 49c | 88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.21 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 47c | 86.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.46 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68d8…55e6backed Yes | 54c | 86.02$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 39c | 81.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…e6d3backed Yes | 46c | 79.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 49c | 77.37$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.81 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b5…5888backed Yes | 55c | 77.26$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 78c | 68.85$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 46c | 65.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 50c | 61.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x300d…978fbacked Yes | 37c | 54.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 47c | 54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…dd0ebacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0e…79c8backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c04…ac99backed Yes | 48c | 49.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeac…b326backed Yes | 50c | 49.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6c…12b8backed Yes | 53c | 48.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed No | 47c | 47.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067c…2d46backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fa…45d2backed Yes | 57c | 43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +160.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 48c | 40.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcca…da80backed No | 50c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 53c | 38.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 27c | 37.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac13…6506backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e0…64fabacked No | 54c | 36.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c9…0dfebacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Yes | 55c | 32.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf684…6affbacked No | 47c | 31.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe514…c8cebacked Yes | 50c | 26.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed7…e255backed No | 55c | 25.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8e…1a3bbacked Yes | 50c | 23.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes | 58c | 22.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe362…bd00backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Tariff inflation" during December press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Again" 10+ times during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Dissenter" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Employment" or "Unemployment" 20+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Layoffs" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pause" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Percent" 25+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Probability" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Projection" 5+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Shutdown" or "Shut down" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Sorry" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 13+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Unchanged" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Weakening" during December press conference?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.