Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Trump" during December press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf005946e23325d03a983ffc9df961d655ce84f7215bdb40037eab51960e19cc6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,616
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,056
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,616 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 10c | 2,769$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.75 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Yes | 11c | 2,088$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.52 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 11c | 1,956$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.54 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb60…137abacked Yes | 14c | 1,729$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -90.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8e…b232backed Yes | 18c | 1,676$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcf…d95bbacked Yes | 18c | 1,622$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2168…c418backed Yes | 19c | 1,176$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b3…40d4backed Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e4…5bbcbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e17…f41ebacked Yes | 13c | 957.02$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd3…82e5backed Yes | 20c | 932.86$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 14c | 929.36$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.1 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac13…6506backed Yes | 14c | 857.14$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecc…6ee0backed Yes | 17c | 750$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.78 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb5…a803backed Yes | 14c | 725.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x706c…7752backed Yes | 10c | 724.02$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed Yes | 8c | 691.74$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.43 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3146…d2febacked Yes | 3c | 673.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 7c | 660.84$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.63 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 633.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.49 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fba…1404backed Yes | 16c | 632.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 18c | 556.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5eae…558abacked Yes | 11c | 554.17$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 19c | 537.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0631…8a25backed Yes | 15c | 505.64$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x701a…49acbacked Yes | 7c | 499.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 14c | 450.7$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2717…d031backed Yes | 17c | 447.13$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 77c | 435.25$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.26 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b0…5419backed Yes | 18c | 414.17$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b0…aa9cbacked Yes | 13c | 409.91$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf1…ee87backed Yes | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…3bf2backed Yes | 11c | 396.47$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…4449backed Yes | 13c | 383.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +1,328.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df8…3ee8backed Yes | 16c | 381.67$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8266…ad1abacked Yes | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa51b…26b1backed No | 79c | 349.99$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3379…72b9backed Yes | 12c | 333.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…6193backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…b0a8backed Yes | 17c | 290.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46a4…60dabacked Yes | 10c | 280.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc1…f223backed Yes | 18c | 277.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3f…6525backed Yes | 15c | 274.9$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Yes | 12c | 261.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8628…9764backed Yes | 10c | 254.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Yes | 17c | 250$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87b5…df63backed Yes | 11c | 244.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 11c | 239.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d1…33cfbacked Yes | 17c | 239.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d55…3ea8backed Yes | 18c | 225.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Yes | 14c | 215.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1720…8156backed Yes | 10c | 203$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 11c | 202.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21e2…e456backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0067…6667backed Yes | 15c | 194.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b55…01c6backed Yes | 13c | 182.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf45f…2634backed Yes | 11c | 182.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc46…c7c5backed Yes | 13c | 177.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0192…6995backed Yes | 6c | 173.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908e…2291backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe9…b973backed Yes | 24c | 166.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f01…558fbacked Yes | 12c | 163.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c23…a3e4backed Yes | 13c | 157.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3d…ca88backed Yes | 16c | 155.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa3…1df4backed Yes | 13c | 155$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 9c | 147.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Yes | 17c | 145.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fc…4324backed Yes | 14c | 143$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…511bbacked Yes | 10c | 136.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b1…2c4ebacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70e9…adeabacked Yes | 15c | 131.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd6…e41dbacked Yes | 14c | 127.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8d…cd06backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…d1ddbacked Yes | 17c | 119.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Yes | 13c | 115.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…9ff3backed Yes | 16c | 115.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49fa…f904backed Yes | 19c | 105.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 10c | 100.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4da3…eb83backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55db…8364backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6252…bcf4backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc589…621fbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…f70ebacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…c5d9backed Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc23a…9e6fbacked Yes | 15c | 99.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba5…2bddbacked Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58a2…5248backed Yes | 22c | 91.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb63…f516backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4db…ef1fbacked Yes | 13c | 79.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85ac…54ebbacked Yes | 14c | 78.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3f…ac90backed Yes | 17c | 72.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82bb…68dcbacked Yes | 19c | 71.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe64a…d752backed Yes | 16c | 70.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e24…b31fbacked Yes | 18c | 66.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46ed…761fbacked Yes | 16c | 63.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f73…5228backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5086…5080backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Trump" during December press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Again" 10+ times during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Dissenter" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Employment" or "Unemployment" 20+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Layoffs" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pause" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Percent" 25+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Probability" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Projection" 5+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Shutdown" or "Shut down" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Sorry" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Tariff inflation" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 13+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Unchanged" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Weakening" during December press conference?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.