Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Shutdown" or "Shut down" during December press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6dad9544889aa5ae47c5ba670717a5d7abc762b3a5716e487d65cc3181ac5bd7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,573
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,641
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,573 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7bd…2a37backed Yes | 3c | 10,550$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,233.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.97per pick | 3cpaid | +3,233.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed No | 14c | 3,550$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 15c | 2,269$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.7 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4533…d575backed No | 12c | 2,179$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.25 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +46%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdca6…9a97backed Yes | 11c | 1,756$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,562.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +809.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9240…a7c7backed No | 14c | 1,135$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 11c | 1,103$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.38 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed No | 29c | 724.17$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.81 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 14c | 692.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed No | 14c | 600$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.69 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x892c…46cfbacked No | 17c | 587.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40a2…3963backed Yes | 71c | 550$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecc…6ee0backed No | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 11c | 452.78$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.72 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 11c | 445.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 9c | 428.83$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed No | 13c | 329.51$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 75c | 305$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.25 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa253…7630backed No | 14c | 300$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.26 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed No | 25c | 252.86$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.36 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 11c | 223.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…2240backed No | 13c | 215.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc46…c7c5backed No | 14c | 176.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce1…1209backed No | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…fbc5backed No | 20c | 150.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed No | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d0…a82cbacked No | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18e7…ed30backed Yes | 65c | 130$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc12…eb59backed No | 19c | 128.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dd…dbbdbacked No | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b97…0efebacked No | 15c | 123.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…b07ebacked No | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1199…d5f9backed No | 13c | 110$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…6f14backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 30cpaid | -87%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac6c…a297backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…5003backed No | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 26c | 86.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e86…6bc9backed Yes | 73c | 53.89$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…f9f2backed No | 27c | 45.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x980f…778cbacked Yes | 65c | 31.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00e0…8a94backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…eadcbacked Yes | 77c | 23.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…064fbacked Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Shutdown" or "Shut down" during December press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Again" 10+ times during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Dissenter" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Employment" or "Unemployment" 20+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Layoffs" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pause" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Percent" 25+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Probability" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Projection" 5+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Sorry" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Tariff inflation" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 13+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Unchanged" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Weakening" during December press conference?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.