Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during December press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd248bad295e44ae1c071f2b6b7d54d91a00059f9a8958ed89a8aada7bfe47e5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,336
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,058
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,336 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4533…d575backed Yes | 48c | 1,397$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.32 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +46%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8f…0efcbacked Yes | 73c | 1,379$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed No | 60c | 662.43$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.66 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 9c | 562.23$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +9.2wins | +0.44per pick | 14cpaid | +420%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 42c | 506.82$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.86 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 4c | 499.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +432.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc90…00aebacked No | 57c | 420$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.31 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfacf…44adbacked No | 49c | 409.63$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x042b…bbf1backed No | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b3…40d4backed Yes | 50c | 349.46$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.73 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a1…3529backed Yes | 48c | 346.56$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked No | 58c | 345.25$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1940…f54abacked No | 51c | 292.15$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 42c | 250.36$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.29 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f7…42a9backed No | 42c | 250$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…e564backed Yes | 59c | 250$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 55c | 222.22$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.22 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d9…1ff9backed Yes | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 27c | 215$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.95 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5801…a4afbacked Yes | 28c | 178$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.16 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 55c | 158.05$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.69 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 33c | 158.01$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.87 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93b1…2c4ebacked Yes | 57c | 156.52$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.04 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fba…1404backed No | 65c | 152.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed No | 66c | 151.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50ed…cbbebacked No | 67c | 150.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d6…64b8backed No | 67c | 149.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac6c…a297backed No | 48c | 149$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0067…6667backed No | 48c | 136.02$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 48c | 132.76$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.24 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24a…fdbcbacked No | 51c | 125.34$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.01 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd96…e623backed Yes | 61c | 119.28$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 43c | 115.59$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.46 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…c5d9backed Yes | 54c | 111.08$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e27…4203backed Yes | 64c | 100.42$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b97…0efebacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +6.1wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1ddb…039bbacked No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…5003backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9aa…bb40backed Yes | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 66c | 98.53$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.34 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 46c | 96.65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.59 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa702…b687backed Yes | 50c | 92.93$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c3…a800backed Yes | 55c | 85.14$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…2078backed No | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes | 45c | 79.89$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.89 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 43c | 75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 45c | 72.17$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98fa…d698backed No | 57c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.58 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4a…14d2backed Yes | 45c | 69.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +213.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 61c | 69.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.59 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa253…7630backed Yes | 42c | 62.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5107…4106backed Yes | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d11…a3b8backed No | 46c | 59.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 36c | 56.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf397…e1dabacked No | 50c | 53.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x706c…7752backed No | 49c | 53.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 51c | 53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 51c | 51.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1952…5a39backed No | 54c | 50.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2134…0734backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f90…163cbacked No | 44c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 34c | 47.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6358…cc23backed Yes | 62c | 47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd63a…546ebacked No | 51c | 44.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefc9…b337backed Yes | 54c | 43.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked Yes | 57c | 43.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6063…22cebacked No | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd02…60e0backed Yes | 58c | 41.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Yes | 58c | 41.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed No | 48c | 41.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -60%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked No | 50c | 40.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed No | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92c8…0c5bbacked No | 54c | 39.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…c3c4backed Yes | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe588…890abacked Yes | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…2f49backed Yes | 51c | 38.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x609b…99c8backed Yes | 53c | 37.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 43c | 37.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x303c…4487backed No | 57c | 34.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c0…1197backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8d…1425backed No | 75c | 34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eae…558abacked Yes | 61c | 32.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd6…4634backed Yes | 64c | 32.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.41per pick | 39cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbfd…57bcbacked Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc12…eb59backed No | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d8…0a63backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3273…9621backed No | 68c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a34…3079backed No | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c17…9edcbacked Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -63%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…a3c9backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7b…a54bbacked Yes | 44c | 29.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -62%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42c8…d093backed No | 58c | 27.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 67cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6272…4e64backed Yes | 60c | 27.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…dd0ebacked No | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x59c2…de58backed No | 52c | 24.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during December press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "Again" 10+ times during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Dissenter" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Employment" or "Unemployment" 20+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Layoffs" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pause" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Percent" 25+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Probability" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Projection" 5+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Shutdown" or "Shut down" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Sorry" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Tariff inflation" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 13+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Unchanged" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Weakening" during December press conference?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.