Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during December press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34ff406b90f9a375073cf06014c4bd0fa159b926937c98b139f0c492e751ee12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,561
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,561 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 168 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2901…f4d6backed No | 20c | 9,390$1,912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,911.87 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 78c | 6,422$5,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,388.39 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 15c | 2,212$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.58 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd02a…2921backed No | 7c | 1,997$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.64 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 75c | 1,973$1,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.89 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 9c | 1,880$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.99 | 66 | 16.7%11 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6d…1ba1backed No | 24c | 1,672$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0c…cfc9backed No | 33c | 1,364$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.34 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…fbc5backed No | 19c | 1,358$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e6…30a2backed Yes | 79c | 1,200$944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f82…2d74backed No | 21c | 1,192$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 78c | 1,078$844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.67 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b45…1d44backed No | 20c | 1,037$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes | 79c | 1,000$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83e1…6a54backed No | 18c | 997.39$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e86…6bc9backed No | 21c | 919.74$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.66 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaec…dd15backed No | 11c | 886.38$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…4449backed No | 18c | 861.36$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.37 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +1,328.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Yes | 76c | 749.99$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb74e…e0a6backed No | 16c | 712.5$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed No | 16c | 711.29$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.81 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 13c | 672.5$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.43 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 19c | 650.21$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.79 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed No | 21c | 631.41$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.71 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed Yes | 78c | 599.97$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f33…b7dabacked No | 18c | 598.31$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0422…43cdbacked Yes | 80c | 590.03$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3649…530fbacked No | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x892c…46cfbacked No | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 79c | 560.81$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.7 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda42…dc4fbacked No | 20c | 530$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…2240backed No | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked No | 17c | 479.05$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.54 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2066…7841backed No | 22c | 454.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 14c | 454.6$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.07 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c10…8053backed No | 23c | 440$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd121…b5fcbacked No | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d0…a82cbacked No | 23c | 433.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4705…3988backed No | 23c | 425.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…005bbacked No | 17c | 403.89$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c8…e7acbacked No | 20c | 395.51$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eae…558abacked No | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe61c…f19cbacked No | 15c | 349.17$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 14c | 339.86$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfacf…44adbacked No | 13c | 332.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…baa0backed Yes | 78c | 329.99$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.7 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee8…b211backed No | 18c | 325.15$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5f…d583backed No | 20c | 319.49$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 14c | 315.69$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5273…69f5backed No | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77da…87ebbacked No | 23c | 310.7$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed No | 14c | 309.87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe280…f4d9backed Yes | 56c | 300$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 15c | 291.72$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.79 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…de26backed Yes | 75c | 277.58$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.39 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b1…2c4ebacked No | 23c | 266.56$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7803…2a7cbacked No | 23c | 260.87$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 79c | 258.34$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.48 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39b9…81e5backed No | 20c | 249.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf737…8ff6backed No | 22c | 247.33$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb1…5df2backed No | 17c | 238.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked No | 22c | 229$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.38 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…1a0cbacked No | 16c | 220.42$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0631…8a25backed No | 23c | 216.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7355…12efbacked No | 21c | 204.76$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27e4…ff39backed No | 16c | 203.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d29…6da9backed No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b48…050cbacked Yes | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.61 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c5…feeabacked Yes | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 77c | 199.99$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 36cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 72c | 199.98$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c7…423fbacked No | 23c | 197.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 22c | 196.33$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed No | 17c | 190.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe14f…c1a0backed Yes | 78c | 190$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 14c | 181.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 14c | 176.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 19c | 176.19$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…b07ebacked No | 23c | 174.76$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d1…33cfbacked No | 23c | 170.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…8954backed No | 24c | 166.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ee…953bbacked Yes | 79c | 158.23$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f3…f500backed No | 24c | 154.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddbc…6965backed No | 22c | 153.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 18c | 152.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94e6…380cbacked No | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 25cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef0…88abbacked No | 20c | 146.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf45f…2634backed No | 18c | 138.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed No | 12c | 137.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe078…e707backed No | 15c | 134.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b1…b45bbacked No | 15c | 130.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…9a58backed No | 23c | 129.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff8d…57dcbacked No | 23c | 129.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12a9…4aadbacked No | 20c | 129.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 76c | 124.86$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed No | 14c | 120$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa5…3590backed No | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4579…9f19backed No | 17c | 116.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1a…d9abbacked No | 20c | 116.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during December press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Again" 10+ times during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Dissenter" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Employment" or "Unemployment" 20+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Layoffs" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pause" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Percent" 25+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Probability" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Projection" 5+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Shutdown" or "Shut down" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Sorry" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Tariff inflation" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 13+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Unchanged" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Weakening" during December press conference?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.