Us Politics · resolved market
Trump executive order ending Department of Education by Thursday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ef64b8f36cda0795c2729041aeda2221a8e309e32f7a9e064d47302aa92a4e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,922
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,717
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,922 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked No | 5c | 4,047$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.15 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 15c | 2,684$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.62 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 2c | 2,241$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.28 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 12c | 2,002$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.13 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 78c | 1,868$1,453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.43 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked No | 9c | 1,699$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.3 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd110…cb4cbacked No | 5c | 1,013$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -71%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…81b1backed Yes | 75c | 733.35$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.12 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6718…80d1backed No | 10c | 733.18$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.88 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed No | 9c | 727.51$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.53 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed No | 13c | 695.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.29 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa4…7983backed No | 16c | 629.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb29…573fbacked No | 33c | 614.24$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x967c…a16dbacked No | 18c | 570.55$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…c53ebacked No | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 9c | 454.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed No | 23c | 450$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed Yes | 67c | 447.71$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.75 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7830…783fbacked No | 14c | 431.33$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.81 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked No | 18c | 410$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.7 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6771…5ce3backed No | 8c | 389.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed No | 7c | 367.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 88 | 20.5%18 W · 70 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44e6…e40dbacked No | 14c | 360.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa44e…4d45backed No | 29c | 343.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…4b0abacked No | 12c | 341.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.57 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…dc58backed No | 6c | 308.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d67…4e16backed No | 5c | 299.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes | 75c | 273.47$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.38 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8964…0becbacked No | 22c | 270$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…e310backed No | 19c | 261.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa37f…3584backed No | 20c | 255$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebf…83cebacked Yes | 77c | 244.44$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.96 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…3f59backed No | 10c | 240.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x239a…a0c6backed No | 9c | 234.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe461…9a34backed No | 6c | 229.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…980bbacked No | 30c | 217.05$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.34 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 17c | 204.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 116 | 12.9%15 W · 101 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 24c | 200$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccf…34e6backed No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 76c | 196.36$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.36 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ea31backed No | 8c | 192.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 11c | 160$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ae…9b16backed No | 13c | 160$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -28%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…92c5backed No | 31c | 150$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 18c | 149.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…9750backed No | 26c | 136.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf53d…ba5bbacked No | 73c | 136.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c05…ce97backed No | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad66…7a43backed Yes | 75c | 132.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.89 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5a…e693backed No | 27c | 125.45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb54…6e4bbacked No | 17c | 121.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed No | 18c | 120$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3b…f573backed No | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes | 76c | 110$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed Yes | 80c | 102.54$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…cd12backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -79%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…24c3backed No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…e579backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb81c…fb1cbacked No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…e32abacked No | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff9…75e5backed No | 16c | 92.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2582…a015backed Yes | 78c | 89.5$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51d7…c725backed No | 23c | 81.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 59c | 79.61$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2e…4d83backed No | 19c | 66.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91fb…2771backed Yes | 44c | 65.38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.88 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 33c | 53.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a3…24bdbacked Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…9fd1backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf9…e408backed Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…9231backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 80c | 18.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.