Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 21-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffd304f794ccaf0865b3439a9896b913f6b67cd80a8232b90995c1d677abdafe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $655,364
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $340,702
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $655,364 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 261 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 8c | 20,040$1,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,507.04 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2631…4d56backed Yes | 13c | 14,959$1,873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,872.94 | 104 | 9.6%10 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d22…ec35backed Yes | 6c | 14,633$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$947.83 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -76%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 5c | 13,087$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.28 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 6c | 12,779$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.2 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 7c | 12,018$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$828.57 | 79 | 5.1%4 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 8c | 9,435$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9841…5189backed Yes | 13c | 7,078$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 8c | 7,001$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.98 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 7c | 6,998$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.8 | 80 | 31.3%25 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…6bf7backed Yes | 15c | 6,965$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,024.59 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…8f73backed Yes | 7c | 6,810$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.67 | 126 | 23%29 W · 97 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0317…6289backed Yes | 15c | 6,543$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cde…8833backed Yes | 3c | 6,158$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.07 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 9c | 5,987$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.98 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 3c | 5,924$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.57 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0973…8986backed Yes | 15c | 5,833$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895.99 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 5c | 5,801$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.96 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8085…0243backed Yes | 12c | 5,366$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.22 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 4c | 5,165$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.43 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…3a04backed Yes | 6c | 5,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 10c | 4,822$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.88 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec20…52f1backed Yes | 10c | 4,759$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.95 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 4c | 4,539$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.93 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…ccbabacked Yes | 12c | 4,382$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.88 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6b…12e7backed Yes | 12c | 4,240$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 1c | 4,117$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.64 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1306…7e5fbacked Yes | 5c | 3,903$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.14 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 8c | 3,812$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.6 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 8c | 3,512$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.68 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dd…8121backed Yes | 10c | 3,472$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.11 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf407…10f7backed Yes | 9c | 3,393$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c58…14f7backed Yes | 13c | 3,311$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 10c | 3,084$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.04 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef2…8a53backed Yes | 12c | 3,026$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.98 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff6…c92cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,804$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa77c…f762backed Yes | 2c | 2,605$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.71 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4345…77fabacked Yes | 6c | 2,583$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.79 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x741b…b1d3backed Yes | 10c | 2,500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd25…52a6backed Yes | 8c | 2,500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -77%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Yes | 8c | 2,363$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.55 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 9c | 2,275$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.65 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97f7…c4d2backed Yes | 9c | 2,257$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.98 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x910c…d7a7backed Yes | 7c | 2,179$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.83 | 75 | 16%12 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed Yes | 15c | 2,130$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.02 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 2,042$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.18 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 6c | 2,000$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.68 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,829$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.38 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 5c | 1,800$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.05 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes | 12c | 1,759$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.09 | 114 | 21.1%24 W · 90 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe742…7559backed Yes | 14c | 1,728$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.83 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 6c | 1,700$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.6 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d6d…2d44backed Yes | 12c | 1,616$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -75%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,495$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.34 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3a…159bbacked Yes | 13c | 1,460$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.22 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb52f…30fabacked Yes | 14c | 1,450$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 1,446$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.66 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d6…555cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,421$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.81 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7dd…6a2cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,415$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.44 | 131 | 26.7%35 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x243f…12fabacked Yes | 15c | 1,395$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ba…ac5bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,349$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7214…980bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,317$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.04 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…5ddabacked Yes | 8c | 1,290$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee85…7777backed Yes | 8c | 1,278$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 10cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c8…0e10backed Yes | 6c | 1,251$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed4f…b1bebacked Yes | 17c | 1,208$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 5c | 1,200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 10c | 1,198$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.78 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c53…1977backed Yes | 8c | 1,187$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3d…83f8backed Yes | 13c | 1,154$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…7512backed Yes | 6c | 1,134$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.73 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4c…3742backed Yes | 11c | 1,117$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62e0…b2b4backed Yes | 10c | 1,110$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.05 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a12…c455backed Yes | 6c | 1,109$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Yes | 8c | 1,082$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a4…e284backed Yes | 12c | 1,070$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65cc…6ba0backed Yes | 5c | 1,068$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.4 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,067$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.69 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…0166backed Yes | 10c | 1,041$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.66 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85f2…7db1backed Yes | 8c | 1,010$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.8 | 100 | 16%16 W · 84 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.33 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…c824backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40f4…d060backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +296.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes | 11c | 999.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…0b88backed Yes | 13c | 965.37$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.73 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 925.88$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.27 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5088…8844backed Yes | 17c | 895.64$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21b8…66b8backed Yes | 9c | 865.63$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x796e…bc25backed Yes | 12c | 836.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…9c79backed Yes | 12c | 821.94$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.63 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x965e…0062backed Yes | 13c | 794.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 7c | 793.3$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.67 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 9c | 779$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.11 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce54…d757backed Yes | 5c | 778.83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…8b26backed Yes | 14c | 775.4$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.13 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26dc…e492backed Yes | 13c | 749.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d8…3024backed Yes | 8c | 745.54$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.82 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c0…9f52backed Yes | 10c | 744.29$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.19 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 12c | 742.72$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.87 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x078a…d3edbacked Yes | 12c | 727.28$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 21-28?this page
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 21-28?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.