Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe62a821c6f75f55de5714ae7e22d7eef7231d836caf6e81e985a10b3bf34d089
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $294,401
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $120,463
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $294,401 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 2c | 12,166$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.69 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 4c | 10,444$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.09 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 9,800$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -94.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6b…12e7backed Yes | 6c | 8,325$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 6,813$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.58 | 44 | 4.5%2 W · 42 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099e…8e52backed Yes | 3c | 6,575$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.39 | 50 | 2%1 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2631…4d56backed Yes | 4c | 6,385$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237 | 104 | 9.6%10 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 3c | 5,190$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.77 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…3a04backed Yes | 3c | 5,000$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 3c | 5,000$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 1c | 4,391$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.3 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 2c | 3,343$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.96 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 4c | 3,000$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.09 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc536…3cefbacked Yes | 3c | 2,926$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 4c | 2,159$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.56 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 4c | 2,116$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 4c | 2,114$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.14 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dd…8121backed Yes | 4c | 2,062$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.87 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 4c | 2,005$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.37 | 79 | 5.1%4 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,918$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc9…7361backed Yes | 1c | 1,818$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed4f…b1bebacked Yes | 5c | 1,673$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 3c | 1,500$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.48 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,403$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x992d…743bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,357$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 3c | 1,160$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x910c…d7a7backed Yes | 3c | 1,036$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 75 | 16%12 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 3c | 1,033$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,015$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c58…14f7backed Yes | 7c | 1,015$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 3c | 1,013$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8085…0243backed Yes | 6c | 1,006$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d6d…2d44backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -75%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3a…159bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…7b30backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7dd…6a2cbacked Yes | 4c | 999.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 131 | 26.7%35 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 3c | 999.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c7…e97ebacked Yes | 2c | 900$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 4c | 824.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 114 | 17.5%20 W · 94 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 3c | 810.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 4c | 805.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 648.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec20…52f1backed Yes | 3c | 618.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4242…06a6backed Yes | 5c | 613.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -44%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 2c | 606.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab6a…a06abacked Yes | 3c | 596.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9c…c5ebbacked Yes | 3c | 588.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b36…4021backed Yes | 3c | 552.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…0166backed Yes | 3c | 499.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 2c | 499.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 2c | 499.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 71 | 11.3%8 W · 63 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed87…35f2backed Yes | 5c | 499.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0239…844bbacked Yes | 4c | 469.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 403.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68e5…c63abacked Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e44…0f50backed Yes | 4c | 320$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5677backed Yes | 5c | 227.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28?this page
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 21-28?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.