Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 21-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cdcfdccf736ccda6d5d1269a929da591f3ad5aaeae2442d929fc0ab1ec466dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $547,507
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $279,674
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $547,507 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 177 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 0c | 18,249$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.97 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 3c | 16,699$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.83 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 14c | 14,186$2,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,012.64 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…ded6backed Yes | 0c | 11,228$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.87 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,087$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 240 | 1.7%4 W · 236 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +675.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2631…4d56backed Yes | 12c | 9,083$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,098.56 | 104 | 9.6%10 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7214…980bbacked Yes | 6c | 8,069$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.01 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae97…7eabbacked Yes | 2c | 8,001$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…92c0backed Yes | 2c | 7,739$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.45 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf91b…92b1backed Yes | 0c | 7,555$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce54…d757backed Yes | 1c | 6,450$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3a…159bbacked Yes | 12c | 6,330$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.46 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes | 0c | 5,930$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc786…d82ebacked Yes | 10c | 5,825$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.39 | 56 | 10.7%6 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 8c | 5,608$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.67 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 10c | 5,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 8c | 4,917$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.76 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d6d…2d44backed Yes | 4c | 4,852$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.2 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -75%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19ab…b9d4backed Yes | 1c | 4,822$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.04 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…755dbacked Yes | 13c | 4,785$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 13c | 4,581$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.75 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8085…0243backed Yes | 11c | 4,569$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.56 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,342$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.42 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 13c | 4,096$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.35 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c0…9f52backed Yes | 12c | 4,069$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.76 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0973…8986backed Yes | 14c | 4,013$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.45 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…6bf7backed Yes | 11c | 3,862$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.13 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7dd…6a2cbacked Yes | 5c | 3,841$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.44 | 131 | 26.7%35 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 4c | 3,591$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.37 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c58…14f7backed Yes | 15c | 3,569$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 3,462$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 149 | 14.1%21 W · 128 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…ccbabacked Yes | 10c | 3,204$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.34 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e0…f11cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,147$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 6c | 3,140$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.8 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 11c | 3,008$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.22 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 2c | 2,930$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.99 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 15c | 2,862$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.32 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…6ef5backed Yes | 16c | 2,836$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.31 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe261…a8b6backed Yes | 4c | 2,832$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.94 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 9c | 2,762$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.4 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbebc…4745backed Yes | 1c | 2,755$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 10cpaid | +228.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x769e…cd65backed Yes | 9c | 2,730$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.04 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 14cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa77c…f762backed Yes | 4c | 2,491$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.93 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 10c | 2,484$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.88 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 7c | 2,410$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.09 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Yes | 5c | 2,319$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 3c | 2,315$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.07 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb7…70dabacked Yes | 3c | 2,299$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc536…3cefbacked Yes | 4c | 2,273$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…7512backed Yes | 5c | 2,080$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.5 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 14c | 2,052$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.26 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.9 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26b9…07f6backed Yes | 1c | 1,998$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3166…a9febacked Yes | 1c | 1,960$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…3660backed Yes | 2c | 1,947$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9841…5189backed Yes | 13c | 1,763$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.4 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe742…7559backed Yes | 16c | 1,739$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.61 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…bd9bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,714$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -71%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 11c | 1,700$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ede…730abacked Yes | 3c | 1,686$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Yes | 9c | 1,650$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.54 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 13c | 1,619$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.24 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…07d4backed Yes | 22c | 1,605$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…cf47backed Yes | 10c | 1,600$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 4c | 1,573$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.45 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 10c | 1,570$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…7b30backed Yes | 7c | 1,500$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.48 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 5c | 1,500$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0239…844bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,484$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.69 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 3c | 1,483$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.42 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…ab4fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,474$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b9…98ffbacked Yes | 5c | 1,286$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,265$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.16 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x099e…8e52backed Yes | 6c | 1,137$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.49 | 50 | 2%1 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf407…10f7backed Yes | 4c | 1,112$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 6c | 1,112$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.05 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf348…48c7backed Yes | 4c | 1,070$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 1,002$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.31 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…980bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe94e…ac9ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed Yes | 9c | 937.85$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.41 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d8…3024backed Yes | 6c | 933.33$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…7a15backed Yes | 10c | 916.67$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 113 | 19.5%22 W · 91 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb52f…30fabacked Yes | 13c | 892.15$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.98 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65cc…6ba0backed Yes | 1c | 880.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…0166backed Yes | 8c | 802.38$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.17 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4242…06a6backed Yes | 7c | 770$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -44%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1306…7e5fbacked Yes | 12c | 766$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.92 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b2…e0adbacked Yes | 11c | 727.47$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 8c | 700$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.3 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 697.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x910c…d7a7backed Yes | 13c | 659$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.95 | 75 | 16%12 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe583…2d98backed Yes | 11c | 650$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 114 | 21.1%24 W · 90 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97f7…c4d2backed Yes | 9c | 641.3$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57dc…a126backed Yes | 15c | 623.08$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.46 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ba…592abacked Yes | 4c | 616.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 21-28?this page
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 21-28?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.