Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 21-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34a7a71b8eae2bec06e066bf137c15766cf1aa335be0eb26acda3229e324f98b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $609,388
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $530,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $609,388 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 396 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 44c | 25,684$11,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,271.53 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2631…4d56backed Yes | 26c | 19,000$4,861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,139.67 | 104 | 9.6%10 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 19c | 14,177$2,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,512.73 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 41c | 13,657$5,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,023 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 41c | 10,025$4,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,914.78 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9841…5189backed Yes | 27c | 9,484$2,574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,910.03 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…ccbabacked Yes | 16c | 7,783$1,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,565.4 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed No | 69c | 7,688$5,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,333.33 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c58…14f7backed Yes | 28c | 7,306$2,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,294.82 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 31c | 6,333$1,965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,368.57 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 15c | 5,204$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.52 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…6ef5backed Yes | 17c | 5,003$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,167.23 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa112…d215backed Yes | 33c | 5,000$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,350 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…8f73backed Yes | 36c | 4,910$1,789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,121.02 | 126 | 23%29 W · 97 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0973…8986backed Yes | 34c | 4,745$1,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,155.3 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd7…1e98backed No | 70c | 4,560$3,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,183.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 20c | 4,508$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,621.8 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…6bf7backed Yes | 15c | 4,234$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,602.47 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked Yes | 20c | 4,231$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,364.12 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…0166backed Yes | 63c | 4,175$2,612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,563.28 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 24c | 3,773$914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,859.03 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…7b30backed Yes | 32c | 3,700$1,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,524 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 20c | 3,618$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,884.65 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3a…159bbacked Yes | 14c | 3,323$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,872.84 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 34c | 3,233$1,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,129.34 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 43c | 3,161$1,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,794.41 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -62%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed No | 29c | 3,130$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$914.95 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 15c | 3,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,540.35 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98f5…7226backed Yes | 33c | 3,000$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,010 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…92c0backed No | 13c | 2,990$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.36 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 29c | 2,630$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,875.82 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7214…980bbacked Yes | 15c | 2,500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,125 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 40c | 2,497$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,495.37 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 17c | 2,486$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,055.8 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d2…cfb1backed Yes | 43c | 2,395$1,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,367.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec20…52f1backed Yes | 17c | 2,391$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,992.51 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8085…0243backed Yes | 12c | 2,331$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,046.95 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1306…7e5fbacked Yes | 42c | 2,309$968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,341 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 36c | 2,289$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,466.65 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…3a04backed No | 63c | 2,280$1,447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,446.6 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc24…e86fbacked Yes | 39c | 2,247$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,369.1 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed No | 1c | 2,236$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 149 | 14.1%21 W · 128 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd361…3885backed Yes | 36c | 2,225$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,425.08 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…7512backed Yes | 35c | 2,224$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,453.07 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a6…cf2fbacked Yes | 27c | 2,196$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,601.02 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 31c | 2,037$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,407.08 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8f…97bcbacked Yes | 51c | 2,014$1,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.67 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,819.99 | 79 | 5.1%4 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4138…505ebacked Yes | 63c | 1,988$1,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.13 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa810…fd25backed Yes | 55c | 1,967$1,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.06 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf407…10f7backed Yes | 42c | 1,946$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,132.1 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69bb…0f5cbacked Yes | 53c | 1,922$1,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910.17 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 15c | 1,852$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,572.12 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…5acabacked Yes | 14c | 1,819$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,566.31 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc786…d82ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,800$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,619.72 | 56 | 10.7%6 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 21c | 1,725$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,361.82 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97f7…c4d2backed Yes | 19c | 1,676$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,356.87 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 52c | 1,510$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.62 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 12c | 1,500$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,319.98 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0de4…2d29backed Yes | 15c | 1,470$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,249.5 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…f176backed Yes | 54c | 1,350$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.95 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce54…d757backed Yes | 25c | 1,348$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010.6 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 15c | 1,332$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.8 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +140.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 15c | 1,306$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.37 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +179.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb52f…30fabacked Yes | 15c | 1,297$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,106.25 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094c…e608backed Yes | 20c | 1,240$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.76 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d22…ec35backed Yes | 38c | 1,240$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772.24 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -76%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 22c | 1,211$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$946.29 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa27b…5d5cbacked Yes | 48c | 1,181$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.87 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 32c | 1,100$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe261…a8b6backed Yes | 35c | 1,089$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…e22ebacked No | 22c | 1,087$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…7a15backed Yes | 17c | 1,080$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 113 | 19.5%22 W · 91 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 31c | 1,069$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.6 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 19c | 1,033$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835.44 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe94e…ac9ebacked Yes | 44c | 1,025$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.25 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3d…83f8backed Yes | 11c | 1,009$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.09 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4f…5241backed Yes | 24c | 1,000$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +126.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb192…5f11backed No | 69c | 1,000$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…f823backed Yes | 23c | 999.98$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.98 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 56c | 994.24$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.32 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 961.14$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.51 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x078a…d3edbacked Yes | 44c | 959.65$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.01 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…6241backed Yes | 12c | 950$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835.8 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9961…adcbbacked No | 29c | 949.99$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.08 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1e…1f0bbacked Yes | 27c | 908.7$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 31c | 868.46$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.65 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…24efbacked Yes | 13c | 866.65$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.99 | 156 | 19.2%30 W · 126 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…8b26backed Yes | 12c | 863.65$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.86 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43bf…9d26backed Yes | 26c | 804.71$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.62 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 16c | 799.99$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.99 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2c…b96cbacked Yes | 36c | 769.47$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.92 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc011…0a62backed Yes | 65c | 766.14$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.15 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f8…ead6backed Yes | 23c | 740.16$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.35 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x769e…cd65backed Yes | 10c | 733.68$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.31 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 14cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 31c | 730.24$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.84 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5677backed Yes | 12c | 728.13$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.75 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa88f…7e59backed Yes | 45c | 708.99$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.95 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes | 31c | 680.98$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.17 | 118 | 10.2%12 W · 106 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 21-28?this page
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.