Us Politics · resolved market
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with India before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93afce5a3a2ff7db52e2161f318d70f8660b2ed14a694e2db5bfbd95c79e54ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $485,051
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $520,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $485,051 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 398 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xffe7…3cc1backed No | 38c | 23,544$8,947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,597.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c2…64aabacked Yes | 62c | 23,544$14,597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,597.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 35c | 22,865$7,942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,942.1 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6f…8afbbacked Yes | 73c | 18,816$13,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,729.39 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 60c | 15,267$9,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,232.67 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…4ee0backed Yes | 70c | 11,082$7,748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,748.25 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb2…682cbacked No | 8c | 11,049$908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,141.48 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked No | 41c | 10,286$4,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,095.97 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 74c | 8,748$6,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,501.42 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 14c | 7,179$1,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,162.69 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 37c | 6,500$2,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,410 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 24c | 6,300$1,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,780.95 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…2eb0backed No | 23c | 5,406$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,156.03 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 35cpaid | +157.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb78e…30e3backed No | 27c | 4,580$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,330.29 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb21…8145backed No | 61c | 4,442$2,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,712.57 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 75c | 4,096$3,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,083.12 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 21c | 4,018$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,190.41 | 141 | 25.5%36 W · 105 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 19c | 3,955$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,221.48 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked No | 55c | 3,889$2,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,758.82 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaefb…a0efbacked No | 79c | 3,650$2,879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.66 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4107…e29cbacked Yes | 75c | 3,643$2,739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,738.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 79c | 3,456$2,746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.46 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9d…4cc1backed No | 63c | 3,455$2,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,268.7 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 31c | 3,141$958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,182.44 | 85 | 17.6%15 W · 70 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa849…c825backed Yes | 79c | 3,000$2,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,369.99 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 22c | 2,728$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,140.99 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe10…95cbbacked No | 26c | 2,680$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,977.56 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 59c | 2,531$1,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045.99 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…05e7backed No | 15c | 2,425$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,068.99 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +180.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc3…648ebacked No | 45c | 2,381$1,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300.17 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked No | 67c | 2,326$1,551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.07 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked No | 21c | 2,310$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,829.4 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4354…b65bbacked Yes | 71c | 2,307$1,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,629.82 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc57b…0a2bbacked No | 77c | 2,214$1,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.29 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.25per pick | 32cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 69c | 2,144$1,473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,472.54 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 76c | 2,001$1,526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,526.46 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…b1e6backed No | 43c | 1,952$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,103.65 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…3197backed No | 22c | 1,894$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,468.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 24c | 1,845$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.91 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 44c | 1,792$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.07 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e6…8513backed No | 14c | 1,786$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,535.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…5e5abacked No | 16c | 1,695$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,423.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +523.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…9bd4backed No | 65c | 1,677$1,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.85 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked Yes | 63c | 1,667$1,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,053 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked No | 13c | 1,619$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,410.98 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed No | 36c | 1,587$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,021.35 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…709cbacked Yes | 79c | 1,502$1,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,189.76 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed No | 29c | 1,500$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,068.5 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 66c | 1,498$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.58 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ea…17ebbacked No | 19c | 1,490$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,209.45 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3469…d62fbacked No | 61c | 1,460$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.63 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 59c | 1,443$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857.9 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 49c | 1,399$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.33 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked No | 68c | 1,399$947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.81 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb67…aa22backed No | 23c | 1,382$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,061.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 7c | 1,380$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.23 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 12c | 1,350$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,184.47 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…8dfcbacked No | 57c | 1,291$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.58 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 52cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 57c | 1,287$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.33 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2aea…afe5backed No | 23c | 1,276$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$976.42 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x090c…b0cfbacked No | 14c | 1,246$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,074.56 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b16…961fbacked No | 24c | 1,244$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$943.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +175.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0607…8bc8backed No | 67c | 1,226$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.48 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…cdf9backed Yes | 20c | 1,186$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.96 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 22c | 1,181$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.01 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 59c | 1,179$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.6 | 142 | 30.3%43 W · 99 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 75c | 1,161$866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.2 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 72c | 1,150$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$828 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 13c | 1,149$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.84 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -93.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…8f27backed No | 18c | 1,116$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.64 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf155…2e19backed Yes | 61c | 1,115$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.99 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…f7e0backed Yes | 72c | 1,070$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$771.78 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -4.8wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x627a…cdc2backed Yes | 72c | 1,060$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.48 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 32c | 1,058$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.52 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3e05…a2edbacked No | 15c | 1,048$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.27 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed No | 31c | 1,000$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.42 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8756…b36cbacked No | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 70c | 988.64$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.9 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24d4…e4a8backed No | 20c | 983.13$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +391.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 47c | 956.08$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.85 | 137 | 14.6%20 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x409e…ae4abacked Yes | 13c | 915.21$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 12c | 915.16$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.34 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked No | 24c | 900$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 40c | 892.19$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.1 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 79c | 844.35$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.88 | 88 | 20.5%18 W · 70 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66e6…4e5bbacked No | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 26c | 826.39$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.06 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 45c | 810.99$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.04 | 132 | 16.7%22 W · 110 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cac…6fa7backed No | 69c | 807.3$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.84 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01dc…84dcbacked Yes | 75c | 803.14$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb67c…a2c3backed Yes | 75c | 800$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 49c | 798.79$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.41 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca5…296abacked Yes | 61c | 798.2$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9a…de87backed No | 34c | 790$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.9 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +5.1wins | +0.23per pick | 45cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x258d…4fd6backed No | 13c | 777.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.81 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 80c | 773.85$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.71 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 3c | 746.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d74…ee45backed Yes | 70c | 741.59$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.53 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd2…fec8backed Yes | 68c | 739$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd602…0105backed Yes | 67c | 734.93$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.37 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with India before July?this page
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Argentina before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Australia before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Brazil before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Canada before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with China before July?Yes won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with France before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Germany before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Israel before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Japan before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Mexico before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with South Korea before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Vietnam before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with the European Union before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with the United Kingdom before July?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.