Us Politics · resolved market
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with the United Kingdom before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40c70b680a0e2096ef85f923a9d8b96f1d839981c4e0d1b560645d63602ae5d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $330,585
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $331,687
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $330,585 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x71e5…d10bbacked No | 0c | 104,055$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.82 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca29…8358backed Yes | 68c | 31,106$21,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,953.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7873…5acebacked No | 32c | 31,106$9,954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,953.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…b797backed No | 4c | 18,877$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.6 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed No | 3c | 18,663$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.81 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 1c | 8,959$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.53 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ff…c93bbacked No | 16c | 6,114$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 1c | 6,050$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked No | 4c | 6,017$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.65 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed No | 3c | 5,693$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.95 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 4,701$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.08 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked No | 1c | 4,667$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.28 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 2c | 2,864$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…9979backed No | 3c | 2,129$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.23 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff0…ad1ebacked No | 2c | 2,000$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 7c | 1,731$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.63 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 7c | 1,668$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.66 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +10.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…4ee0backed No | 5c | 1,640$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.36 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 4c | 1,558$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.55 | 115 | 38.3%44 W · 71 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a5…c139backed No | 2c | 1,463$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 43c | 1,435$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.86 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 3c | 1,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 32c | 898.93$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.98 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 12c | 834.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 68c | 641.31$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.31 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 6c | 622.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x20c4…97c9backed Yes | 56c | 537.41$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.41 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed Yes | 74c | 514.82$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.61 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +8.0wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +20%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 44c | 459.08$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.2 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5be7…d440backed No | 4c | 450$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…5232backed No | 26c | 381.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.32 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 45c | 322.91$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.64 | 144 | 60.4%87 W · 57 L | +16.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 70c | 300.74$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.41 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…8f27backed No | 41c | 300$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.3 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked No | 32c | 247.39$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.43 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 46c | 242.73$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.76 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 73c | 214.06$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.29 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd784…8f5bbacked Yes | 50c | 199.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.01 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 53c | 187.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.24 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ace…3038backed Yes | 59c | 170.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.27 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 68c | 156.38$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked Yes | 72c | 155.08$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 58c | 147.21$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.54 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb4…ae30backed Yes | 59c | 145$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.9 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.28per pick | 41cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked Yes | 71c | 130.1$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 127 | 36.2%46 W · 81 L | -17.3wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 39c | 125.41$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.67 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…60c8backed No | 11c | 121.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…1322backed Yes | 68c | 120$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbba4…f8c6backed Yes | 59c | 119.97$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 67c | 119.89$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.97 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 17c | 116.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8536…a2cfbacked No | 58c | 116$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.28 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 14c | 114.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc27…f631backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 49c | 95.81$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.14 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 36c | 90.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb67…aa22backed No | 23c | 88.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…78d1backed No | 48c | 82.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.57 | 76 | 72.4%55 W · 21 L | +14.7wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x201e…174cbacked Yes | 76c | 77.55$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…e238backed No | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 54c | 70$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6906…9995backed Yes | 53c | 66.35$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b2…4e0cbacked Yes | 72c | 65.61$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec2…b66cbacked No | 43c | 62.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +3.4wins | +0.48per pick | 37cpaid | +136.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xae20…245abacked Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +303.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1779…4822backed No | 61c | 49.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28a6…86a7backed No | 41c | 49.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdccc…3ac3backed No | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed No | 45c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf639…5838backed Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -35%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…d8d0backed No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Yes | 38c | 31.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…0b68backed Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28da…b97dbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 68c | 29.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc7…4292backed Yes | 74c | 27.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1374…3e56backed Yes | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4b…fe6ebacked No | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 54c | 23.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5260…fd71backed Yes | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc62…e8e6backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…86b5backed Yes | 63c | 19.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a22…f03fbacked Yes | 70c | 15.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with the United Kingdom before July?this page
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Argentina before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Australia before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Brazil before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Canada before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with China before July?Yes won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with France before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Germany before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with India before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Israel before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Japan before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Mexico before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with South Korea before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Vietnam before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with the European Union before July?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.