TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with the United Kingdom before July?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$330,585
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$331,687

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $330,585 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x71e5…d10bbacked No0c104,055$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.823928.2%11 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca29…8358backed Yes68c31,106$21,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,953.92333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-51%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7873…5acebacked No32c31,106$9,954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,953.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfea2…b797backed No4c18,877$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.64858.3%28 W · 20 L+5.3wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbb8e…b243backed No3c18,663$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.813652.8%19 W · 17 L+5.4wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+29.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No1c8,959$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.5323149.4%114 W · 117 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8ff…c93bbacked No16c6,114$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed No1c6,050$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9cc…387abacked No4c6,017$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.655442.6%23 W · 31 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-3.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x79ad…a9f1backed No3c5,693$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.956038.3%23 W · 37 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-34%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No2c4,701$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.081,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked No1c4,667$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.282400%0 W · 240 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed No2c2,864$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.753989.5%38 W · 360 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecf4…9979backed No3c2,129$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.232536%9 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-44.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ff0…ad1ebacked No2c2,000$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked No7c1,731$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.6315332.7%50 W · 103 L-0.6wins0.00per pick33cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No7c1,668$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.6611347.8%54 W · 59 L+10.8wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+18.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x36b8…4ee0backed No5c1,640$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.363228.1%9 W · 23 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-43.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed No4c1,558$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.5511538.3%44 W · 71 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+44.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1a5…c139backed No2c1,463$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.18per pick25cpaid+60.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe6fd…8bc3backed No43c1,435$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.867250%36 W · 36 L+6.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+5.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed No3c1,000$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3121935.2%77 W · 142 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed No7c1,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708127.2%22 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No32c898.93$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.985451.9%28 W · 26 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed No12c834.84$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10021634.3%74 W · 142 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Yes68c641.31$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.3117452.9%92 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No6c622.99$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.78058.8%47 W · 33 L+9.0wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+24.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x20c4…97c9backed Yes56c537.41$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.411233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x63c6…43a5backed Yes74c514.82$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.617265.3%47 W · 25 L+8.0wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+20%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes44c459.08$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.241238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5be7…d440backed No4c450$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick56cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc8d…5232backed No26c381.99$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.321855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30d1…4525backed No45c322.91$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.6414460.4%87 W · 57 L+16.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+24%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes70c300.74$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.4118746.5%87 W · 100 L+16.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+23.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xccf3…8f27backed No41c300$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.36131.1%19 W · 42 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6902…678cbacked No32c247.39$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.432650%13 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes46c242.73$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.767441.9%31 W · 43 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf27a…1d05backed Yes73c214.06$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.2914819.6%29 W · 119 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd784…8f5bbacked Yes50c199.01$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.011241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-21.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes53c187.74$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.2437533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ace…3038backed Yes59c170.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.27825%2 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-61.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes68c156.38$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.519348.2%93 W · 100 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x87cd…6f2abacked Yes72c155.08$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.96058.3%35 W · 25 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes58c147.21$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.541,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbfb4…ae30backed Yes59c145$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.91513.3%2 W · 13 L-4.2wins-0.28per pick41cpaid-80.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x50b2…c94abacked Yes71c130.1$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.6312736.2%46 W · 81 L-17.3wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-34.7%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xeb99…8c33backed No39c125.41$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6710244.1%45 W · 57 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a6d…60c8backed No11c121.74$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.34940.8%20 W · 29 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+30.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c92…1322backed Yes68c120$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.44438.6%17 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbba4…f8c6backed Yes59c119.97$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.995149%25 W · 26 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+28.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes67c119.89$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.9799629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No17c116.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.924035.4%85 W · 155 L-12.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-30.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8536…a2cfbacked No58c116$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.28825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-61.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No14c114.29$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9233627.4%92 W · 244 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3de…e227backed No24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247830.8%24 W · 54 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.456733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcc27…f631backed Yes76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes49c95.81$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.1418033.3%60 W · 120 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5638…224dbacked No36c90.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9917238.4%66 W · 106 L-14.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-20.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xfb67…aa22backed No23c88.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.94650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+30%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x62d5…78d1backed No48c82.61$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.577672.4%55 W · 21 L+14.7wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+36.8%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x201e…174cbacked Yes76c77.55$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.26250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7fe…e238backed No27c74.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick46cpaid+37.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes54c70$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.932626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6906…9995backed Yes53c66.35$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.351833.3%6 W · 12 L-3.3wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-30.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc9b2…4e0cbacked Yes72c65.61$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.63551.4%18 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ec2…b66cbacked No43c62.17$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27785.7%6 W · 1 L+3.4wins+0.48per pick37cpaid+136.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xae20…245abacked Yes71c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+303.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1779…4822backed No61c49.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick63cpaid-40.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x28a6…86a7backed No41c49.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.481457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+53.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdccc…3ac3backed No61c49.18$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302552%13 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd2d9…5653backed No45c45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.256645.5%30 W · 36 L+6.9wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+55.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf639…5838backed Yes58c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.81729.4%5 W · 12 L-3.6wins-0.21per pick51cpaid-35%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6d3e…d8d0backed No53c37.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x169e…de26backed Yes38c31.56$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.56744.8%30 W · 37 L-6.1wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-27.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf327…0b68backed Yes73c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.15028%14 W · 36 L-5.0wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-43.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x28da…b97dbacked Yes39c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.33228.1%9 W · 23 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes68c29.38$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5225241.7%105 W · 147 L-17.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5bc7…4292backed Yes74c27.78$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.22955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1374…3e56backed Yes74c27$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d4b…fe6ebacked No58c25.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+67.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes54c23.88$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.9937844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5260…fd71backed Yes73c21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.67633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-50.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc62…e8e6backed Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick69cpaid+3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x461a…4030backed Yes75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55433.3%18 W · 36 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e50…86b5backed Yes63c19.98$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.392751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid-5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a22…f03fbacked Yes70c15.71$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.71250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.