Us Politics · resolved market
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Brazil before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4215ab87e8fd98efe346b118a956ceca1b0cfaf66acd6d0b5c0931d3c683ae55
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $122,199
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $121,417
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,199 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x59df…81bdbacked No | 66c | 55,012$36,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,704.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70e5…e989backed Yes | 34c | 54,992$18,697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,697.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3119…c8f8backed Yes | 71c | 1,399$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 26c | 1,204$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$891.11 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 24c | 757.63$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.33 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 11c | 639.61$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.46 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 52c | 560.62$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.3 | 144 | 60.4%87 W · 57 L | +16.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 31c | 517.77$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.98 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 40c | 457.73$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.76 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 37c | 425.02$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.01 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 41c | 416.65$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.43 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 66c | 357.8$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.77 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 72c | 280.14$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.14 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3e…3d75backed No | 67c | 279.51$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.65 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…4238backed No | 75c | 265.09$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.09 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +7.2wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 247.65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.41 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccc…cd45backed Yes | 35c | 246.43$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 15c | 221.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 65c | 200.95$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.81 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked No | 56c | 199.99$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb084…92dcbacked Yes | 20c | 187.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.55 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x230e…865cbacked No | 77c | 173.74$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 40c | 169$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 61c | 163.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.24 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4a…fff2backed Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 144.62$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 74c | 135.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 74 | 73%54 W · 20 L | +12.8wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 10c | 119.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…8bb4backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -6.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…0f76backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 67c | 98.39$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.96 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7caf…19d2backed Yes | 36c | 84.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aea…afe5backed Yes | 60c | 82.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…2a89backed No | 60c | 79.81$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed Yes | 41c | 77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa952…b274backed No | 62c | 69.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7be2…c5efbacked No | 63c | 67.57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +41%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85ab…8b3cbacked No | 56c | 56.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba90…99b9backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf710…edc9backed No | 79c | 52.51$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…a39fbacked Yes | 45c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed Yes | 40c | 47.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5c…3912backed No | 67c | 46.11$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 43c | 44.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3052…9732backed Yes | 40c | 40.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 39cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked Yes | 41c | 40.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…0e07backed No | 44c | 40.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 70c | 38.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 76c | 34.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked No | 59c | 33.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked Yes | 35c | 32.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e05…a2edbacked No | 66c | 29.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 73c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…8ddfbacked No | 67c | 23.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 65 | 72.3%47 W · 18 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 65c | 18.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Brazil before July?this page
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Argentina before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Australia before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Canada before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with China before July?Yes won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with France before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Germany before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with India before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Israel before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Japan before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Mexico before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with South Korea before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Vietnam before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with the European Union before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with the United Kingdom before July?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.