Us Politics · resolved market
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with France before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd0ef05c9897cf8ca6cd84043e391612d56bbc9422ddee687b3afaea3de16188
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $176,842
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $169,401
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $176,842 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85a8…974cbacked Yes | 26c | 48,011$12,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,482.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…bb94backed No | 74c | 48,011$35,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,482.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 2c | 4,843$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.97 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -93.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…897ebacked Yes | 26c | 4,772$1,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,253.07 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…2202backed No | 75c | 3,787$2,843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.47 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x709b…0a0abacked Yes | 23c | 2,635$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55d2…53c9backed Yes | 20c | 2,505$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 50cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa95f…2bdbbacked Yes | 1c | 2,473$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c0…3a66backed Yes | 1c | 2,166$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 79c | 2,040$1,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.44 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbe…c65dbacked Yes | 21c | 2,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes | 18c | 1,761$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.66 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed No | 80c | 1,600$1,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.79 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 1,543$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…4ee0backed Yes | 23c | 1,517$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.37 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 71c | 1,375$983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.47 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed Yes | 8c | 1,339$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.37 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…3235backed Yes | 28c | 1,081$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066a…550dbacked Yes | 17c | 1,080$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.6 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 18c | 1,046$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.25 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 74c | 1,000$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb084…92dcbacked Yes | 19c | 774.07$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.41 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…709cbacked Yes | 24c | 693.34$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.01 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 6c | 690.19$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb77…7368backed Yes | 3c | 679.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2c…dc30backed Yes | 30c | 659.04$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 23c | 593.65$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.87 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed Yes | 15c | 500$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 77c | 499.82$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.96 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7287…8402backed Yes | 20c | 488.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0c…25dfbacked Yes | 27c | 488.14$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 71c | 476.41$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.64 | 135 | 56.3%76 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 388.72$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.26 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…be5ebacked Yes | 24c | 360$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dc…528fbacked Yes | 28c | 356.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 76c | 338.57$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.47 | 144 | 60.4%87 W · 57 L | +16.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 5c | 318.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfab9…60b2backed Yes | 24c | 316$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef71…704fbacked No | 79c | 273.7$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.42 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc3…648ebacked No | 79c | 252.32$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.32 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e0…6c39backed Yes | 15c | 250$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ea…b2c1backed Yes | 4c | 241$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed Yes | 26c | 220$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…73a1backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6aef…6a38backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 29c | 197.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.46 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 76c | 178.19$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.63 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc39…da16backed Yes | 15c | 162.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes | 27c | 159.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 21c | 152.94$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed No | 66c | 152$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.68 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 25c | 144$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 73c | 140$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked Yes | 24c | 139.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…5232backed No | 73c | 136$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc93e…786abacked Yes | 22c | 135.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed Yes | 15c | 135.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 76c | 132.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 78c | 131.51$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.56 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87bf…3111backed No | 75c | 131.49$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +4.7wins | +0.31per pick | 55cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…bbe6backed Yes | 18c | 121.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 114.02$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeab3…00fdbacked Yes | 18c | 111.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc2…e3f4backed Yes | 52c | 110$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba90…99b9backed Yes | 25c | 101.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6643…0109backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad1…6d88backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ba…408fbacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…6183backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 20c | 97.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc15f…7590backed Yes | 23c | 91.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 20c | 82.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x983f…fd5ebacked No | 76c | 75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6906…9995backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x550d…8cabbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8864…2c6abacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 26cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 79c | 60.09$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e05…a2edbacked No | 77c | 56.73$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2836…a0cdbacked No | 80c | 54.14$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3052…9732backed Yes | 22c | 51.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 39cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…8bb4backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -6.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +8.4wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0a…6fc4backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 75c | 49.24$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Yes | 30c | 47.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 79c | 41.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e43…2578backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdd…2916backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +144.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18fd…bc0fbacked No | 54c | 37.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +130%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd75…4e9abacked No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +129.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…1322backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 67c | 19.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 79c | 15.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.23 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed No | 71c | 15.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with France before July?this page
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Argentina before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Australia before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Brazil before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Canada before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with China before July?Yes won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Germany before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with India before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Israel before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Japan before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Mexico before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with South Korea before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Vietnam before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with the European Union before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with the United Kingdom before July?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.