Us Politics · resolved market
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Germany before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb3880e77c3a961bda3a01e62a06bf7ac562975f32b098edeb65c96b2f1bd09c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $166,599
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $169,176
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $166,599 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2cd…9ad1backed No | 75c | 44,926$33,695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,231.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…c267backed Yes | 25c | 44,926$11,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,231.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…2202backed No | 77c | 4,839$3,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,128.51 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…897ebacked Yes | 28c | 3,905$1,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,085.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes | 19c | 2,521$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x709b…0a0abacked Yes | 26c | 2,307$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 2,109$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d2…53c9backed Yes | 24c | 2,108$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.6 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 50cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 71c | 2,000$1,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.01 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x066a…550dbacked Yes | 16c | 1,807$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 18c | 1,582$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.76 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 11c | 1,481$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.62 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb37b…15b7backed Yes | 24c | 1,444$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 72c | 1,382$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.88 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed Yes | 11c | 1,228$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.02 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…4ee0backed Yes | 23c | 1,083$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.59 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked No | 75c | 1,046$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.53 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 74c | 1,027$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.5 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 77c | 999.99$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.5 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…709cbacked Yes | 26c | 889.91$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.62 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 26c | 879.32$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.62 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb77…7368backed Yes | 2c | 807.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee64…c04ebacked Yes | 25c | 798.48$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 77c | 778.34$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.75 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 5c | 758.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 75c | 732.54$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.67 | 144 | 60.4%87 W · 57 L | +16.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…3235backed Yes | 27c | 732.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 79c | 725.61$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.03 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24a…fdbcbacked Yes | 4c | 695.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +345.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x433a…71e7backed Yes | 26c | 694.28$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.45 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked No | 78c | 644.68$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.84 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…f94bbacked Yes | 17c | 599.98$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 4c | 544.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef71…704fbacked No | 76c | 500$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.01 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 2c | 497.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -93.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0d…2a33backed Yes | 5c | 482.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…2eb0backed Yes | 25c | 461.75$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 35cpaid | +157.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 72c | 415.06$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.62 | 135 | 56.3%76 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x31df…a53fbacked Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 21cpaid | +242.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…5232backed No | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.04 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e0…6c39backed Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aef…6a38backed Yes | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30a5…d157backed Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 296.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed No | 80c | 293.15$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.63 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 75c | 276.59$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.15 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6269…1887backed Yes | 23c | 273.83$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc3…648ebacked No | 77c | 260.4$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.4 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 25c | 245.51$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2c…dc30backed No | 74c | 243.11$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.77 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb67c…a2c3backed Yes | 25c | 241.59$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.83 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf222…9718backed Yes | 34c | 223.51$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x550d…8cabbacked Yes | 28c | 217.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 27c | 202$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.54 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed Yes | 25c | 200$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…73a1backed No | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf92…e512backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…ba2fbacked Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 28c | 185.9$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.91 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87bf…3111backed No | 75c | 180.62$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +4.7wins | +0.31per pick | 55cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 78c | 152.03$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.76 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked No | 77c | 150$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…6183backed No | 73c | 139.98$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 25c | 135.79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 75c | 133.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.72 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x8dfc…d340backed Yes | 27c | 130$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 74c | 130$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 77c | 129.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 74 | 73%54 W · 20 L | +12.8wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 23c | 116$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x132c…c285backed Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…bbe6backed Yes | 16c | 109.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked Yes | 33c | 106$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f03…2fadbacked Yes | 23c | 104.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc93e…786abacked Yes | 24c | 103.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes | 33c | 102$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 101.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x403e…c74fbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3768…9cfcbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab3…00fdbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x296b…2cf2backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed No | 65c | 94$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…8c20backed No | 80c | 92$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfab9…60b2backed Yes | 20c | 91.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…0e07backed No | 72c | 90$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x182c…86f0backed Yes | 28c | 85.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed No | 69c | 81$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3052…9732backed Yes | 25c | 78.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 39cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x983f…fd5ebacked No | 73c | 75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 77c | 72.5$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7e…a7b0backed Yes | 23c | 69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 26c | 68.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…5069backed No | 76c | 67.28$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Yes | 23c | 65.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…f14cbacked Yes | 27c | 62.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5260…fd71backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 79c | 53.39$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed Yes | 23c | 52.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…78d1backed No | 76c | 51.66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 76 | 72.4%55 W · 21 L | +14.7wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed Yes | 28c | 51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 24c | 50.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Germany before July?this page
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Argentina before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Australia before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Brazil before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Canada before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with China before July?Yes won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with France before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with India before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Israel before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Japan before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Mexico before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with South Korea before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Vietnam before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with the European Union before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with the United Kingdom before July?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.