Us Politics · resolved market
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Mexico before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef9d7250e48bd6d680cdfdf78484d594c26a9d14a2156731f2687acccaf60e1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $288,361
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $291,289
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $288,361 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 135 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc24b…7281backed No | 51c | 37,519$19,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,384.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0b…b3dabacked Yes | 49c | 37,519$18,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,384.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc5…50bbbacked Yes | 41c | 31,549$12,935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,935.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98c8…1b65backed No | 59c | 31,549$18,614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,935.09 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29f7…c2e2backed Yes | 43c | 29,067$12,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,498.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cdd…c765backed No | 57c | 29,067$16,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,498.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7e…21f6backed Yes | 39c | 27,145$10,587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,586.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d7…6565backed No | 61c | 27,145$16,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,586.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked No | 35c | 1,501$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$969.75 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf155…2e19backed Yes | 33c | 1,358$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.37 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae78…701cbacked No | 59c | 1,250$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.48 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 57c | 940.41$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.65 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 57c | 904.2$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.59 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 23c | 880.21$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.25 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…709cbacked Yes | 48c | 861.89$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.8 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 31c | 833.33$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.47 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b8…b2b5backed Yes | 38c | 823.45$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 45c | 804.45$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc8…89b6backed Yes | 33c | 787.58$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.33 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 66c | 733.93$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.21 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…4ee0backed Yes | 27c | 733.25$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.85 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 41c | 686.51$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.05 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75b1…e2e8backed No | 49c | 615.07$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.07 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…3ae1backed No | 57c | 600$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 53c | 599.99$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.99 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…1863backed No | 76c | 588.1$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…014cbacked Yes | 44c | 575.71$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.31 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 58c | 520.45$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.35 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 60c | 482.2$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.76 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +9.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9a…de87backed No | 32c | 473.92$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.74 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +5.1wins | +0.23per pick | 45cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed No | 56c | 432.06$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.92 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x090c…b0cfbacked No | 45c | 400$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.6 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb4…d639backed Yes | 27c | 400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 37c | 345.43$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.86 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 66c | 341.29$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.83 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 59c | 338.17$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.17 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 46c | 319.01$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.23 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 32c | 317.72$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.57 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…8dfcbacked No | 69c | 315.23$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.22 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 52cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2cac…6fa7backed No | 71c | 311.69$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.26 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacc…e985backed Yes | 54c | 299.99$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.3 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked Yes | 52c | 285.77$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.9 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 13c | 273.41$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -93.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…a2c4backed No | 69c | 270$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.7 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 52c | 268.13$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.67 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Yes | 39c | 262.46$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.36 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…7737backed No | 32c | 254.82$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.82 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +8.5wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes | 29c | 253$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.84 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 50c | 249.99$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.07 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 31c | 238.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.19 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 52c | 237$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.04 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +10.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 43c | 232.66$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.18 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 40c | 217.17$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.16 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 42c | 207.25$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.06 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 28c | 207.23$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.63 | 82 | 26.8%22 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 20c | 202.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.46 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked No | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…121dbacked Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x296b…2cf2backed Yes | 46c | 199.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaed5…c699backed Yes | 50c | 198.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…89c2backed Yes | 51c | 192.44$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.09 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…4238backed No | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +7.2wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7d17…9558backed Yes | 56c | 178.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.93 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 75c | 172.76$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.19 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 58c | 172.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.21 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e3…cad2backed No | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 58c | 171.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.87 | 74 | 73%54 W · 20 L | +12.8wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed Yes | 19c | 168.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05ec…a2c6backed No | 49c | 167.12$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…0f76backed No | 50c | 162$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.53 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6aef…6a38backed Yes | 45c | 156.44$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed No | 54c | 152.78$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.78 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e0…6c39backed Yes | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef9b…7606backed No | 55c | 140.94$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.42 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 20c | 133.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeac3…50c5backed No | 75c | 125$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed No | 31c | 120$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.8 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 35c | 115$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.78 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked No | 59c | 110$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2acd…d85cbacked Yes | 49c | 103$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…abd5backed No | 78c | 103$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…9bd4backed No | 55c | 100.41$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.38 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf980…6697backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +103%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc3…648ebacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…e125backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…e61bbacked No | 75c | 91.88$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed No | 78c | 91.3$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aea…afe5backed No | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 51c | 83.71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed No | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 70c | 78.12$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked No | 55c | 76.87$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Yes | 51c | 76$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…b1e6backed No | 52c | 72.95$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 52c | 70.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d9…0e77backed No | 58c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 59cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed Yes | 17c | 68.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 50c | 65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Mexico before July?this page
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Argentina before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Australia before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Brazil before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Canada before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with China before July?Yes won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with France before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Germany before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with India before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Israel before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Japan before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with South Korea before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Vietnam before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with the European Union before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with the United Kingdom before July?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.