Us Politics · resolved market
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Israel before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xded94eac44e736294777a04e33df360fe7a4b30136a2d50dedfb73116cba94e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $660,292
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $664,427
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $660,292 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 187 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x169a…e191backed No | 71c | 51,076$36,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,812.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x470d…c245backed Yes | 29c | 51,076$14,812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,812.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ee…dd52backed Yes | 68c | 50,538$34,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,365.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…5d11backed No | 32c | 50,538$16,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,365.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbec…8178backed Yes | 53c | 36,519$19,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,355.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3394…2373backed No | 47c | 36,519$17,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,355.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…d45fbacked Yes | 46c | 32,665$15,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,025.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…c78abacked No | 54c | 32,665$17,639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,025.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…2a18backed Yes | 46c | 31,947$14,696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,695.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5118…8488backed No | 54c | 31,947$17,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,695.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x659d…c7cfbacked Yes | 52c | 30,927$16,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,082.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4b…651ebacked No | 48c | 30,927$14,845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,082.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42ff…8477backed No | 59c | 30,005$17,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,302.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032f…4679backed Yes | 41c | 30,005$12,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,302.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86eb…a20ebacked Yes | 44c | 28,104$12,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,365.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa37…ba66backed No | 56c | 28,104$15,738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,365.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 33c | 4,772$1,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,175.37 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7472…4febbacked Yes | 74c | 3,780$2,806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,805.93 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked No | 37c | 3,532$1,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,222.5 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…ff53backed Yes | 47c | 2,821$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320.47 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +118%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 60c | 2,609$1,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,037.81 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb10…4881backed Yes | 65c | 2,521$1,638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,638.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 56c | 2,440$1,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,067.14 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked No | 63c | 2,278$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.81 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 54c | 1,886$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.19 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 66c | 1,679$1,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.59 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x372a…7201backed Yes | 39c | 1,600$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 29c | 1,561$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,102.05 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…4ee0backed Yes | 38c | 1,557$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.38 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 65c | 1,424$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.15 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 26c | 1,310$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.86 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aeb…ee22backed No | 80c | 1,217$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed Yes | 33c | 1,166$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.31 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb78b…5d40backed Yes | 9c | 1,009$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.71 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc57b…0a2bbacked Yes | 30c | 1,001$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.25per pick | 32cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa849…c825backed Yes | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 4c | 957$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -93.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3469…d62fbacked No | 66c | 920.51$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.47 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9235…3fbdbacked Yes | 47c | 892.98$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 61c | 849.99$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.49 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x081c…c4e4backed Yes | 20c | 819.65$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 47c | 766.83$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.13 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 56c | 703.66$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.54 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa93a…0f5cbacked No | 65c | 658.12$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.69 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…3ae1backed No | 69c | 640$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 547.68$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.45 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 510.38$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.46 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 56c | 510.33$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.12 | 144 | 60.4%87 W · 57 L | +16.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x922f…69d4backed Yes | 70c | 500$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes | 75c | 500$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0c…1ad5backed Yes | 26c | 499.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 44c | 481.01$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.88 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 35c | 470.44$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.94 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4500…eb2dbacked Yes | 43c | 462.48$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 35c | 452$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.62 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 13c | 411.3$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.86 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 75c | 355.57$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.57 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed No | 79c | 353.57$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.69 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1658…5033backed Yes | 65c | 342.96$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d9…d32abacked No | 72c | 296.99$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.16 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…4238backed No | 67c | 296.57$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.57 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +7.2wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd89b…7945backed Yes | 46c | 292.72$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.05 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7098…d87bbacked No | 72c | 270$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +82.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 37c | 262.98$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.74 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…8f27backed No | 27c | 256.73$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.14 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…be5ebacked Yes | 65c | 250$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.5 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 19c | 233$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf960…ba50backed Yes | 31c | 230$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.3 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 8c | 226.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaed5…c699backed Yes | 45c | 223.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bf…8ecebacked Yes | 45c | 220$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.9 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…1984backed Yes | 29c | 219.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f23…e2c8backed Yes | 37c | 205.02$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3d…2adbbacked Yes | 57c | 202.38$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.38 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 33c | 202$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.34 | 141 | 25.5%36 W · 105 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f3…922abacked No | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 48c | 200$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 80 | 57.5%46 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5217…836fbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cf…3349backed No | 20c | 199.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.99 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c9…bb9ebacked Yes | 26c | 195.22$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.76 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 70c | 195$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.2 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 52c | 191.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.85 | 74 | 73%54 W · 20 L | +12.8wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 46c | 186$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.34 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +10.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4872…3730backed Yes | 80c | 173.73$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 23c | 173.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 32c | 171.51$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.23 | 82 | 26.8%22 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21a4…0b9ebacked Yes | 60c | 166.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 65cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 80c | 160$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 137 | 14.6%20 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…ce9dbacked Yes | 39c | 160$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed No | 74c | 156.89$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 58c | 156.57$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.42 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Yes | 38c | 150$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa43f…2972backed No | 62c | 150$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdd…2916backed No | 30c | 150$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +144.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.5 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked No | 70c | 142.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.68 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d2…53c9backed Yes | 72c | 139.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 50cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ace…3038backed Yes | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 80c | 129.05$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 132 | 16.7%22 W · 110 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Israel before July?this page
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Argentina before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Australia before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Brazil before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Canada before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with China before July?Yes won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with France before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Germany before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with India before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Japan before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Mexico before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with South Korea before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Vietnam before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with the European Union before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with the United Kingdom before July?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.