Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with India in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaea6c79cb8d62ecba64932c911e54f2e27c44e382ede2849684461a92dbe5c87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $253,684
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $237,187
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $253,684 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 283 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaefb…a0efbacked Yes | 41c | 12,900$5,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,252.97 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…df68backed Yes | 17c | 6,654$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,149.77 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a6…9f8bbacked Yes | 16c | 5,940$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cc…f848backed No | 27c | 5,741$1,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,162.51 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 43c | 5,717$2,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,440.77 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 5,586$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 75c | 4,698$3,526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,172.42 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 14c | 4,535$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.82 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64eb…364abacked Yes | 8c | 4,529$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe281…e7bfbacked Yes | 9c | 4,472$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.54 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccb4…ac9cbacked No | 39c | 4,443$1,747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,696.25 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 50c | 4,204$2,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,102.07 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…68abbacked No | 55c | 4,143$2,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,846.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 10c | 3,904$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.97 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 16c | 2,981$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.57 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 42c | 2,815$1,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,173.45 | 137 | 14.6%20 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4354…b65bbacked Yes | 45c | 2,629$1,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,188.11 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 15c | 2,592$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.28 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e73…a236backed Yes | 42c | 2,557$1,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064.67 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 49c | 2,539$1,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,233.22 | 132 | 16.7%22 W · 110 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked No | 53c | 2,500$1,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,175 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9a…de87backed Yes | 49c | 2,497$1,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220.72 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +5.1wins | +0.23per pick | 45cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 76c | 2,475$1,884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.23 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf20e…d622backed No | 51c | 2,357$1,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,160.87 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…67fdbacked No | 45c | 2,345$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,295.66 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8756…b36cbacked No | 49c | 2,338$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,188.45 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 41c | 2,317$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.35 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 50c | 1,994$1,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.42 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdea4…15dbbacked Yes | 14c | 1,887$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.67 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87d6…95e6backed Yes | 54c | 1,860$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 38c | 1,792$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.6 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 27c | 1,775$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.44 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8643…cb9bbacked Yes | 60c | 1,690$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,011.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…a496backed No | 23c | 1,647$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,271.79 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +107.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 36c | 1,603$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 63c | 1,498$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949.63 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 35c | 1,444$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.75 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +12.8wins | +0.26per pick | 17cpaid | +218.5%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xce06…9a1ebacked No | 57c | 1,441$822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.91 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed No | 47c | 1,357$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.7 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 22c | 1,357$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.35 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…82cebacked Yes | 19c | 1,315$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.37 | 64 | 23.4%15 W · 49 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -42%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 40c | 1,261$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.21 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed No | 34c | 1,210$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.62 | 46 | 73.9%34 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 79c | 1,117$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.22 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 13c | 1,095$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.94 | 142 | 30.3%43 W · 99 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…1db6backed No | 75c | 1,024$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Yes | 15c | 999.98$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf8…7e78backed Yes | 15c | 996.3$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…aecebacked No | 78c | 945$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.72 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 22c | 896.54$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.54 | 74 | 73%54 W · 20 L | +12.8wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Yes | 13c | 850.43$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.33 | 110 | 31.8%35 W · 75 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…b1e6backed No | 29c | 847.8$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.09 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 26c | 779.8$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.85 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x49e9…0bf2backed No | 52c | 775.45$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.45 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe781…5e52backed No | 23c | 765.1$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.1 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 75c | 749.79$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.97 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked No | 62c | 721.49$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.8 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57e7…b491backed No | 59c | 690.04$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…bd26backed No | 58c | 688.46$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 683.48$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.15 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 11c | 667.9$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.87 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…8f27backed No | 18c | 659.13$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.67 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Yes | 58c | 655$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.45 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…3034backed No | 29c | 646.79$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf192…6ee2backed Yes | 79c | 629.22$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2065…2be5backed No | 80c | 627.33$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.47 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…78d1backed No | 40c | 625.85$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.85 | 76 | 72.4%55 W · 21 L | +14.7wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…57b6backed Yes | 31c | 614.4$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.41 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 18c | 600$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 62c | 597.69$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.55 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked No | 45c | 557.69$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.43 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x681b…bf35backed No | 48c | 533.13$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.32 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6949…a179backed No | 37c | 527.03$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc230…6192backed Yes | 52c | 525.67$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.46 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 43c | 515.24$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.6 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 506.87$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.01 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cac…6fa7backed No | 19c | 504.38$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.06 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Yes | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb2…682cbacked No | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4667…ba10backed No | 44c | 486.22$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x909a…7fe5backed Yes | 76c | 473.67$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…fa04backed No | 48c | 457.82$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.17 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed Yes | 39c | 456.94$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.81 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7faa…c434backed No | 60c | 452.8$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee64…c04ebacked No | 46c | 436.96$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.96 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa244…8e63backed Yes | 12c | 417.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 20c | 406.54$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.79 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88db…3843backed Yes | 11c | 402.88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.32 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…e147backed Yes | 5c | 400$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe758…c90ebacked Yes | 75c | 400$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed No | 43c | 399.97$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.48 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090c…b0cfbacked No | 39c | 389.98$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.09 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…8ddfbacked No | 27c | 383.29$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.21 | 65 | 72.3%47 W · 18 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 29c | 368$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.72 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -11.1wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb277…d809backed Yes | 13c | 357.19$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed Yes | 17c | 355.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.37 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c7…df51backed Yes | 13c | 348.32$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x616b…4070backed No | 40c | 333.67$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.11 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 40cpaid | -53%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed Yes | 46c | 331$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.02 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with India in July?this page
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Argentina in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Australia in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Brazil in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with European Union in July?Yes won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with France in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Germany in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Israel in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Japan in July?Yes won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in July?Yes won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in July?Yes won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Vietnam in July?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.