Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Australia in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf18e0785116e491c40b5a607fa69a451ae552a3f04f50a6bc51a7768fa581e96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,183
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,154
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,183 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 5,934$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.88 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked No | 70c | 3,009$2,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.72 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 30c | 2,789$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.35 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 9c | 2,310$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.95 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb61…58ffbacked Yes | 41c | 1,134$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.93 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 10c | 880.13$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.06 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 72c | 849.34$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.67 | 144 | 60.4%87 W · 57 L | +16.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked No | 80c | 807.86$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.45 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa95f…2bdbbacked Yes | 25c | 735.99$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.85 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa486…25d4backed Yes | 18c | 704.2$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x429d…39a7backed Yes | 8c | 696.19$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.42 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 665.33$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.96 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 26c | 657.16$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.5 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8390…8f8bbacked Yes | 3c | 534.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 29c | 525.48$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.93 | 115 | 38.3%44 W · 71 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 11c | 500$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x267c…9b16backed Yes | 3c | 436$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…89c2backed Yes | 34c | 399.99$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…7516backed Yes | 8c | 390$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 23c | 375.59$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 34c | 370.28$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.73 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 15c | 355.94$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.26 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf00…6767backed Yes | 4c | 338.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 78c | 315.09$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.8 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 19c | 308.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e9…c21ebacked Yes | 5c | 284.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeea…c615backed Yes | 8c | 263$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked No | 75c | 249.06$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.26 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb976…6331backed Yes | 7c | 219$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ac…c2aabacked Yes | 7c | 206.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 22c | 204.39$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.23 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c8…5ababacked No | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…8ee7backed Yes | 14c | 199.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…e147backed Yes | 6c | 186.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 11c | 177.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cac…6fa7backed Yes | 16c | 176.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f53…16c1backed Yes | 12c | 163.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090c…b0cfbacked Yes | 9c | 143$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1639…b984backed No | 70c | 142.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.53 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe758…c90ebacked Yes | 36c | 138.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 74c | 134.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.61 | 74 | 73%54 W · 20 L | +12.8wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 74c | 134.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed No | 77c | 128$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 46 | 73.9%34 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa403…9cabbacked Yes | 10c | 120.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…b5fcbacked No | 73c | 110$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x268b…024fbacked Yes | 32c | 109.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 16c | 103.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 126 | 31.7%40 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e10…7e47backed Yes | 21c | 93.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd591…6958backed Yes | 22c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8403…5c98backed No | 78c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 28c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed7c…da06backed No | 60c | 69.68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.87 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +5.1wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…8ddfbacked No | 66c | 65.15$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 65 | 72.3%47 W · 18 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +8.4wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce2…d48cbacked Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 74c | 56.74$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde0e…746abacked Yes | 26c | 56.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x064c…2de1backed No | 77c | 52.94$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed Yes | 25c | 51.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 132 | 16.7%22 W · 110 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 60c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 137 | 14.6%20 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5c…3912backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked No | 67c | 15.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 68c | 14.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Australia in July?this page
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Argentina in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Brazil in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with European Union in July?Yes won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with France in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Germany in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with India in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Israel in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Japan in July?Yes won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in July?Yes won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in July?Yes won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Vietnam in July?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.