Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Japan in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c464af4535c8ddc8e07214ff721bdb6c0ea48dc9fdbf0dc6408b0bd55bb424e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $102,536
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $108,030
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,536 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 65c | 10,975$7,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,808.48 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 7c | 10,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 1c | 3,810$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 18c | 3,731$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,058.72 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cc…f848backed No | 65c | 2,627$1,718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,717.86 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 24c | 2,327$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,760.79 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5943…2ef2backed No | 12c | 2,176$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.38 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…a496backed Yes | 42c | 2,032$851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,181.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +107.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked No | 1c | 1,970$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 53c | 1,486$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.16 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed No | 64c | 1,356$866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$865.87 | 46 | 73.9%34 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe0dc…3944backed Yes | 35c | 1,300$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 16c | 1,266$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,066.11 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +12.8wins | +0.26per pick | 17cpaid | +218.5%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 65c | 1,160$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.08 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 1,139$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked No | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8add…fc2abacked No | 55c | 979.83$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.32 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 23c | 899.97$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.47 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccb4…ac9cbacked No | 55c | 871.71$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.47 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 19c | 823.49$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.03 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…547ebacked Yes | 71c | 732.73$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -53%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 45c | 730.16$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.71 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 13c | 684.04$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.26 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 45c | 651.37$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.03 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 16c | 643.75$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.75 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x429d…39a7backed Yes | 18c | 635.53$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 2c | 547.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc99…e0a3backed Yes | 36c | 538$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.51 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 30c | 497.06$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.09 | 137 | 14.6%20 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef0…4cdcbacked No | 56c | 444.92$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…2f88backed Yes | 49c | 410.84$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.81 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…621abacked No | 75c | 407$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.81 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 52c | 389.19$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.5 | 74 | 73%54 W · 20 L | +12.8wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe758…c90ebacked Yes | 52c | 386.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 376.48$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.26 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe781…5e52backed No | 54c | 373.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4662…b73abacked Yes | 27c | 369.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0e…746abacked Yes | 18c | 336.84$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.73 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a85…fe9dbacked Yes | 30c | 336.35$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.45 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked No | 78c | 327$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.01 | 110 | 31.8%35 W · 75 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…e1c3backed Yes | 32c | 313$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.84 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 23c | 312.61$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.34 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…508abacked Yes | 15c | 268.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.67 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d7e…13abbacked No | 8c | 257.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 59c | 251.81$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.35 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 66c | 228$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.64 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -11.1wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…8ebbbacked No | 74c | 225.2$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.65 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53cf…7d67backed No | 51c | 200.97$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.49 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.5 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb277…d809backed Yes | 32c | 196.54$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.04 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e4…c8abbacked No | 77c | 180$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…442ebacked No | 57c | 176.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…17d1backed Yes | 25c | 173.53$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a7e…a160backed No | 56c | 171.3$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.25 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1639…b984backed No | 58c | 171.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x064c…2de1backed No | 65c | 150$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.86 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed No | 77c | 150$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090c…b0cfbacked No | 67c | 150$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x830e…7099backed Yes | 44c | 150$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked No | 71c | 146.3$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.76 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 80c | 136.67$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.21 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 35c | 134.15$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.2 | 132 | 16.7%22 W · 110 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705f…3fcfbacked Yes | 54c | 127.97$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +149.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31cc…b804backed Yes | 24c | 126.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.62 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 29cpaid | +96.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb78e…30e3backed Yes | 45c | 126.07$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.34 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked Yes | 23c | 123.55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.13 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0554…da2abacked No | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…df68backed Yes | 18c | 103.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.07 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8b…1ea1backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa8…6c7cbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfab5…690dbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef85…f2b9backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x820b…f7f4backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Yes | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 29c | 94.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.56 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc434…f25ebacked Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.75 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…abd5backed No | 55c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed No | 76c | 85$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 21c | 74.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.66 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf795…c3f5backed Yes | 51c | 71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f1…d390backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1210…cf24backed No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…8ddfbacked No | 61c | 65.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 65 | 72.3%47 W · 18 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…6b37backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe165…8211backed No | 73c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8403…5c98backed No | 57c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x53fc…960bbacked No | 56c | 59.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc230…6192backed No | 79c | 58.18$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.1 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…b5fcbacked No | 50c | 53.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae06…8acebacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f071backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5c…3912backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e73…a236backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8706…0587backed No | 56c | 48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2684…d3d6backed Yes | 50c | 45.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 37c | 43.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Japan in July?this page
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Argentina in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Australia in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Brazil in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with European Union in July?Yes won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with France in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Germany in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with India in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Israel in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in July?Yes won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in July?Yes won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Vietnam in July?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.