TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Israel in July?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$33,348
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$32,297

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,348 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf42f…a6a7backed No57c1,741$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741.788057.5%46 W · 34 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf440…2747backed Yes45c1,422$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636.37425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid+2.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes6c1,089$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.89397.7%3 W · 36 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-55.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes26c1,053$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.8519435.1%68 W · 126 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked No61c1,000$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3957638.2%29 W · 47 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-29%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3469…d62fbacked No60c981.27$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.75666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+19.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x389c…99d1backed Yes24c840.32$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick30cpaid-79%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8637…9657backed Yes31c806.99$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.172846.4%13 W · 15 L-4.5wins-0.16per pick62cpaid-35.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf7c8…5ababacked No63c765$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.32470.8%17 W · 7 L+4.7wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+46.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xaefb…a0efbacked No78c717.78$557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.162070%14 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+2.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes67c705.33$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.7513943.2%60 W · 79 L+0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97ef…5289backed No62c656.91$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.934673.9%34 W · 12 L+6.6wins+0.14per pick59cpaid+27.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed Yes17c624.19$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.1410834.3%37 W · 71 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a85…fe9dbacked Yes47c623.85$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.18742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+46.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c2c…dc30backed No78c580.71$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.262650%13 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x712f…b93bbacked Yes22c500$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf5c…3912backed No58c472.89$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.85149%25 W · 26 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No49c470$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.818445.1%83 W · 101 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes33c468.12$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.441238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90f7…2501backed Yes65c457.24$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.054843.8%21 W · 27 L-5.8wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-23%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes39c445.48$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.292835.7%10 W · 18 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+29.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6cd3…0e8dbacked Yes13c402.42$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5260%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes50c380$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19019348.2%93 W · 100 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x108d…508abacked Yes27c365.91$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982025%5 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick30cpaid+19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccf1…20ccbacked Yes28c359.98$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002030%6 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick33cpaid+5.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x83a2…9452backed Yes33c342$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.864240.5%17 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No51c324.83$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.337473%54 W · 20 L+12.8wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+31.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x2cac…6fa7backed Yes27c309$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.073644.4%16 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed No47c308.48$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.9413673.5%100 W · 36 L+28.4wins+0.21per pick53cpaid+47.4%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x1639…b984backed No75c267.94$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.942161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+15.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked No66c257.12$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.6311031.8%35 W · 75 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1a2…57febacked Yes23c240$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.28355.4%46 W · 37 L+7.1wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No78c224.75$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.4639522.8%90 W · 305 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca80…316abacked Yes37c216.58$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.18520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-33.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed No40c215.58$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.9215155%83 W · 68 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8815…e147backed Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-32.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked No36c199.99$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128850%4 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+30.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked No53c196.92$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.197167.6%48 W · 23 L+9.6wins+0.14per pick54cpaid+41.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3f7a…d7ccbacked Yes55c182.18$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001060%6 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.25per pick35cpaid+177.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed No73c179.68$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.113915.4%6 W · 33 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-70.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9331…a691backed Yes17c166.31$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2330%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bf4…7021backed Yes63c165.93$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.544755.3%26 W · 21 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1dc6…fb06backed Yes26c160$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.6120%0 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x60e3…fd58backed No63c158.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.21616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick39cpaid-73.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes35c156.52$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.355935.6%21 W · 38 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-36.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6ec…1dadbacked No80c154.3$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.165961%36 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96a3…8a32backed No61c149.94$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.712100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8403…5c98backed No55c143$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.613974.4%29 W · 10 L+6.2wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+27%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2586…f4b1backed Yes34c137.41$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.298441.7%35 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f53…16c1backed Yes15c133.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-62.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa03…c6c4backed No51c124.75$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.254158.5%24 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x656e…65d2backed Yes66c109$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.942920.7%6 W · 23 L-3.4wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-59.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes38c104.7$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4625241.7%105 W · 147 L-17.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4afb…4c1fbacked Yes28c101$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed Yes61c100$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616137.7%23 W · 38 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x081e…d651backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8c9…2e25backed Yes19c97.84$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.181540%6 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d2e…f649backed Yes16c96.21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c3e…eddbbacked Yes39c92.31$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0ac…c2aabacked Yes16c90$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141225%3 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+86.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc230…6192backed No65c86.12$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.113060%18 W · 12 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+36.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfab5…690dbacked Yes18c85.62$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151625%4 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-36.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde0e…746abacked Yes27c80.67$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.712842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe165…8211backed No74c80$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.83154.8%17 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-11.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x08ec…b5fcbacked Yes48c75.54$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.144748.9%23 W · 24 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x415c…3c94backed Yes29c74.69$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.88529.4%25 W · 60 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x064c…2de1backed No74c74$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.914158.5%24 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No77c73.42$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8937533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes34c69.3$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.811428.1%32 W · 82 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No51c64.11$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.4521022.4%47 W · 163 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-24.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffde…219dbacked No65c60$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212763%17 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick64cpaid+2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed No53c58.18$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.3118322.4%41 W · 142 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-18.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf002…6221backed Yes22c57.7$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.693053.3%16 W · 14 L+4.0wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+132.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes44c56.2$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255733.3%19 W · 38 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes31c55.48$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.41,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes25c54.33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.521,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8803…8ddfbacked No63c52.61$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.266572.3%47 W · 18 L+7.4wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+20.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1e26…cdf1backed No78c50.46$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.22742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick61cpaid-33.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes49c50.1$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5556733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc652…11b1backed Yes24c50.02$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x895e…d18dbacked Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-31.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff71…bf67backed Yes51c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes33c45.45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1515243.4%66 W · 86 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf088…4942backed No57c43.53$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.532860.7%17 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30d1…4525backed No72c39.16$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.114460.4%87 W · 57 L+16.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+24%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xed95…b1e6backed No73c37.9$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.182748.1%13 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf379…ca0bbacked Yes56c35.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd757…94aabacked No64c33.88$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.254845.8%22 W · 26 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3636…62a9backed Yes45c33.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f86…404ebacked No77c31.76$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.39557.9%55 W · 40 L+9.5wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes51c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.337740.6%153 W · 224 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d34cbacked No70c28.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.632334.8%8 W · 15 L-4.9wins-0.21per pick56cpaid-40.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x97cc…bbbfbacked No78c27$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.941947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+69.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f46…2cd1backed No77c25.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.972365.2%15 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+12.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x45ec…3652backed Yes45c24.3$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+62.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96f1…1bdfbacked Yes53c23.09$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef9b…7606backed No53c22$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.252657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+21.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd87c…8c12backed No76c21.71$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.211866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+17.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x820b…f7f4backed No57c18$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.742268.2%15 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.14per pick54cpaid+37.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf847…33fdbacked No78c17.15$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.775100%5 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+47.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.