Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Israel in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1028984799f36082c3d3b7a6264c4b9fc4cb996bd8f5f7faefa45a3981b12b51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,348
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,297
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,348 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 57c | 1,741$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.78 | 80 | 57.5%46 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf440…2747backed Yes | 45c | 1,422$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 6c | 1,089$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.89 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 26c | 1,053$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.85 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked No | 61c | 1,000$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3469…d62fbacked No | 60c | 981.27$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x389c…99d1backed Yes | 24c | 840.32$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -79%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8637…9657backed Yes | 31c | 806.99$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.17 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c8…5ababacked No | 63c | 765$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.3 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaefb…a0efbacked No | 78c | 717.78$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.16 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 67c | 705.33$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.75 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed No | 62c | 656.91$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.93 | 46 | 73.9%34 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 17c | 624.19$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.14 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a85…fe9dbacked Yes | 47c | 623.85$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2c…dc30backed No | 78c | 580.71$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.26 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…b93bbacked Yes | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5c…3912backed No | 58c | 472.89$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.8 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 49c | 470$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.8 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 33c | 468.12$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.4 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed Yes | 65c | 457.24$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.05 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -5.8wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -23%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 39c | 445.48$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.29 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd3…0e8dbacked Yes | 13c | 402.42$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 50c | 380$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…508abacked Yes | 27c | 365.91$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…20ccbacked Yes | 28c | 359.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed Yes | 33c | 342$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.86 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 51c | 324.83$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.33 | 74 | 73%54 W · 20 L | +12.8wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2cac…6fa7backed Yes | 27c | 309$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.07 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 47c | 308.48$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.94 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1639…b984backed No | 75c | 267.94$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.94 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked No | 66c | 257.12$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.63 | 110 | 31.8%35 W · 75 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked Yes | 23c | 240$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 78c | 224.75$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.46 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca80…316abacked Yes | 37c | 216.58$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 40c | 215.58$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.92 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…e147backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked No | 36c | 199.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 53c | 196.92$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.19 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7a…d7ccbacked Yes | 55c | 182.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 73c | 179.68$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.11 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9331…a691backed Yes | 17c | 166.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf4…7021backed Yes | 63c | 165.93$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.54 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc6…fb06backed Yes | 26c | 160$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60e3…fd58backed No | 63c | 158.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 35c | 156.52$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.35 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 80c | 154.3$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96a3…8a32backed No | 61c | 149.94$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8403…5c98backed No | 55c | 143$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.61 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed Yes | 34c | 137.41$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.29 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f53…16c1backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…c6c4backed No | 51c | 124.75$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.25 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…65d2backed Yes | 66c | 109$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.94 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 38c | 104.7$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4afb…4c1fbacked Yes | 28c | 101$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…d651backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c9…2e25backed Yes | 19c | 97.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2e…f649backed Yes | 16c | 96.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3e…eddbbacked Yes | 39c | 92.31$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ac…c2aabacked Yes | 16c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc230…6192backed No | 65c | 86.12$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfab5…690dbacked Yes | 18c | 85.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0e…746abacked Yes | 27c | 80.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe165…8211backed No | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…b5fcbacked Yes | 48c | 75.54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 29c | 74.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x064c…2de1backed No | 74c | 74$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 77c | 73.42$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 34c | 69.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 51c | 64.11$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffde…219dbacked No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed No | 53c | 58.18$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.31 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf002…6221backed Yes | 22c | 57.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +132.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes | 44c | 56.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 31c | 55.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 54.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…8ddfbacked No | 63c | 52.61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 65 | 72.3%47 W · 18 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e26…cdf1backed No | 78c | 50.46$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 49c | 50.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc652…11b1backed Yes | 24c | 50.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x895e…d18dbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff71…bf67backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf088…4942backed No | 57c | 43.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 72c | 39.16$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 144 | 60.4%87 W · 57 L | +16.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…b1e6backed No | 73c | 37.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf379…ca0bbacked Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd757…94aabacked No | 64c | 33.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…62a9backed Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked No | 77c | 31.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d34cbacked No | 70c | 28.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.9wins | -0.21per pick | 56cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked No | 78c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…2cd1backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45ec…3652backed Yes | 45c | 24.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96f1…1bdfbacked Yes | 53c | 23.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef9b…7606backed No | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd87c…8c12backed No | 76c | 21.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x820b…f7f4backed No | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf847…33fdbacked No | 78c | 17.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Israel in July?this page
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Argentina in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Australia in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Brazil in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with European Union in July?Yes won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with France in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Germany in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with India in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Japan in July?Yes won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in July?Yes won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in July?Yes won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Vietnam in July?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.