TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x1e26…cdf1

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
57
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: NFL, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category NFL at 54 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 26, 2026, EDT2347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gavin McKenna be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$15.12
NHL Playoffs: Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Total Games O/U 5.5backed Over 5.5 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the Western Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.06
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.25
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Avalanche vs. Wild backed Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$8
Will Matthew Schaefer win the 2025–2026 NHL Calder Memorial Trophy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+66%+$15.17
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.1
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.18
NHL Playoffs: Wild vs. Stars Total Games O/U 5.5backed Over 5.5 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$7.2
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the Pacific Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.65
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the Atlantic Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+101.8%+$11.1
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the Metropolitan Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$8.6
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2025 Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT+170.3%+$18.9
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.29
Will the Dallas Stars win the Western Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.61
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the Western Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$11.28
NHL Playoffs: Maple Leafs vs. Panthers (To Advance)backed Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.44
NHL Playoffs: Hurricanes vs. Devils (To Advance)backed Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+37%+$4.05
Stars vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.2
Will Alex Ovechkin break the scoring record this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.85
Will USA win the NHL 4 Nations Face-Off?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2025, EST-100%-$21.8
Will Canada win the NHL 4 Nations Face-Off?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2025, EST+160.6%+$30.2
Canada vs. Finlandbacked Canada · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2025, EST+33.3%+$5.25
All 23 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2026, EST1070%7 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NFL — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Patriots vs. Broncosbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+49.3%+$6.6
Vikings vs. Brownsbacked Vikings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$7.2
Will Joe Flacco start Week 1 for the Browns?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT+42.5%+$7.16
Will Abdul Carter be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT+28.5%+$6.28
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$19.01
Ravens vs. Billsbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST+67.3%+$18.1
Will the Lions win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$16.94
Commanders vs. Buccaneersbacked Commanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2025, EST+33.3%+$3.75
Will Josh Allen be the top Fantasy Quarterback?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2025, EST-100%-$11.82
Will Lamar Jackson be the top Fantasy Quarterback?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2025, EST+57.5%+$36.82
All 10 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick61cpaid-33.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2025, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-38.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-40.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+56.3%+$10.8
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$17.42
All 2 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick39cpaid+159.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+159.7%+$24.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Sep 17, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+126.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+126.8%+$18.91
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+100%+$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Grok remain the #1 model through March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2025, EST+44.9%+$6.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Men's Semifinals - Canada vs. Finlandbacked Finland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$17.36
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Drake be the third most streamed Spotify artist for 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$16.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.