TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will RFK end COVID-19 vaccine recommendation in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$602,048
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$613,781

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $602,048 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 228 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1ca8…dc6dbacked No53c140,217$74,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65,901.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90fe…5f26backed Yes47c140,217$65,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65,901.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4796…af7ebacked Yes32c53,488$17,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,116.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe531…faa5backed No68c53,488$36,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,116.16250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3413…5204backed Yes25c18,797$4,724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,723.833818.4%7 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed No44c11,082$4,824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,257.7214241.5%59 W · 83 L+9.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+18.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x10b3…40d4backed Yes70c10,000$7,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,0004833.3%16 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes7c8,465$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.9112910.9%14 W · 115 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-44.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No62c7,552$4,661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,890.9517633%58 W · 118 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3143…81b1backed No75c7,456$5,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,875.235756.1%32 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No73c5,225$3,818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,406.823639.4%93 W · 143 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed No60c4,719$2,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,882.4621935.2%77 W · 142 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No59c4,351$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,801.7915646.8%73 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes18c3,630$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.513315.2%5 W · 28 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-64%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes35c3,157$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.8811541.7%48 W · 67 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-0.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes25c2,487$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.5699629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes46c2,335$1,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,064.8713029.2%38 W · 92 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes7c2,300$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16328320.5%58 W · 225 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes12c2,208$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260368.3%3 W · 33 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-78.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes51c2,208$1,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,133.47441.9%31 W · 43 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c2,133$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.061,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes2c2,120$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9133313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0dde…94c3backed No58c2,111$1,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$876.343161.3%19 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf93…bdc8backed No76c2,098$1,597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.083148.4%15 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-25.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes25c2,062$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.879831.6%31 W · 67 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-26.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd8b…5945backed Yes2c1,959$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401540%6 W · 9 L+3.9wins+0.26per pick14cpaid+124.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed No40c1,911$758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,153.887338.4%28 W · 45 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0802…8cb0backed No64c1,795$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$645.21666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+29.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb1a2…57febacked No56c1,783$1,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$776.948355.4%46 W · 37 L+7.1wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8365…e9a6backed Yes40c1,778$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.642050%10 W · 10 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+61.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb3d1…c2acbacked No69c1,755$1,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.07475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+28.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0d2…c7bcbacked Yes60c1,669$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.99425%1 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick65cpaid-64.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5230…8132backed No61c1,637$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.75250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a25…81d1backed No62c1,598$986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.13253.1%17 W · 15 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x57d4…ac0dbacked No53c1,552$823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$729.033745.9%17 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe71c…dcecbacked Yes60c1,506$909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909.381258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+52.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No67c1,412$942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.0239522.8%90 W · 305 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadf4…ce9dbacked Yes54c1,361$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$739.53030%9 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc446…0bb4backed No76c1,314$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.95250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes55c1,236$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677.0511347.8%54 W · 59 L+10.8wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+18.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes24c1,233$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.651631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick23cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c3b…3ad8backed Yes60c1,114$669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.061040%4 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-30.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88b6…3cffbacked No72c1,110$803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.225265.4%34 W · 18 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcaa8…6c7cbacked No67c1,072$718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.975444.4%24 W · 30 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21d5…9925backed No57c1,043$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.371877.8%14 W · 4 L+4.0wins+0.22per pick56cpaid+43.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed Yes60c1,006$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.6915238.8%59 W · 93 L-13.5wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-27.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xec40…fce5backed No45c1,000$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5501353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+17%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed No75c893.99$673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.52369.6%16 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked Yes2c862$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.031346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick36cpaid-20.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked No64c841.53$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.8813046.9%61 W · 69 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+10.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes67c829.44$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.8137844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5446…18f6backed Yes55c791.77$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.479142.9%39 W · 52 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf786…73ccbacked No63c723.12$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.821369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes57c670$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.616725.1%42 W · 125 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked No38c656$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.5410452.9%55 W · 49 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes3c584$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4290%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes22c578.76$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.365234.6%18 W · 34 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5cd…e2efbacked Yes18c547.37$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001618.8%3 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+25.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No78c541.02$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.4956733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1e20…f3e7backed Yes60c501.19$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-47.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No34c500.89$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.5941238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x033d…af05backed No80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1002560%15 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes25c482.81$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.3716544.8%74 W · 91 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+30.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x452d…c697backed Yes18c430.65$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91b9…dcd8backed No52c426.66$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.122556%14 W · 11 L+4.4wins+0.18per pick38cpaid+70.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf5d1…67ccbacked Yes17c426$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.31764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+34.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x14a9…f391backed No42c414.73$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.341384.6%11 W · 2 L+4.2wins+0.32per pick53cpaid+79.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No68c401.41$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.1837533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ffe…e125backed No68c400$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.53964.1%25 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99d7…d918backed No35c400$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.857432.4%24 W · 50 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No68c393.14$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.95419.8%4 W · 37 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-72.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf812…494bbacked Yes27c375$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.5850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No39c350$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.520446.6%95 W · 109 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed Yes61c338.5$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.0222347.5%106 W · 117 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1442…5a8fbacked Yes71c333$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.431741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4e…e65abacked No61c333$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.87633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-48.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a44…6d3fbacked Yes58c327$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.152846.4%13 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1fe…1779backed Yes65c310$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.22339.1%9 W · 14 L-3.1wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-35.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x49fd…0198backed Yes56c300$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16915924.5%39 W · 120 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1088…b813backed Yes44c300$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.57724.7%19 W · 58 L-6.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-41.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5037…0307backed No73c279.99$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.31580%12 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+28.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes33c272.51$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.755817.2%10 W · 48 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x712c…de39backed No54c254.66$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1161421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-65.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae43…8194backed Yes59c250$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1483729.7%11 W · 26 L-3.8wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-47.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf327…0b68backed Yes30c241$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.145028%14 W · 36 L-5.0wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-43.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa075…7d2bbacked Yes43c234.02$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes45c221.96$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8813943.2%60 W · 79 L+0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No66c220.96$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.6896319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x30aa…9afcbacked Yes47c210.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf62c…f445backed Yes49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002626.9%7 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed No34c201$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.3315124.5%37 W · 114 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-42%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbd8…15c9backed Yes43c200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.1944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0cd0…0e01backed Yes21c200$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423125.8%8 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-27.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe10b…5fe3backed Yes40c200$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802737%10 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c88…383abacked No63c200$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick59cpaid+105.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x36b8…4ee0backed Yes40c200$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.93228.1%9 W · 23 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-43.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x245c…2486backed Yes23c200$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.073959%23 W · 16 L+5.0wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+15.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5d7a…b5f7backed Yes28c199.67$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.912825%7 W · 21 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-42%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No40c196.03$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.123859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0103…067bbacked No60c195.99$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.43737.8%14 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.