Us Politics · resolved market
Will RFK end Measles Mumps and Rubella vaccine recommendation in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca12a40498aae4c1ec276b4747464fa4a349bf43a3bcb87ce4232851eed13ad7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $263,573
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $263,986
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $263,573 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x561d…4912backed Yes | 12c | 75,163$9,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,019.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83bd…148dbacked Yes | 13c | 49,881$6,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,484.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0590…256bbacked Yes | 15c | 685.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc342…885fbacked Yes | 17c | 580$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cd…e2efbacked Yes | 28c | 356.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 12c | 300$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…5204backed Yes | 12c | 262.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 10c | 261.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 12c | 202.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 77 | 24.7%19 W · 58 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…6d4abacked Yes | 6c | 202$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 52c | 150$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef43…7b62backed Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 21cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 54c | 142$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.85 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 13c | 139.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 25c | 121$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -64%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…81b1backed No | 63c | 110.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.02 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 98 | 10.2%10 W · 88 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…8b95backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ca…9c0abacked Yes | 38c | 95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 33cpaid | +193.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4508…9134backed Yes | 56c | 35.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a37…2db4backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will RFK end Measles Mumps and Rubella vaccine recommendation in 2025?this page
- Will RFK end COVID-19 vaccine recommendation in 2025?No won
- Will RFK end HPV vaccine recommendation in 2025?No won
- Will RFK end Hepatitis B vaccine recommendation in 2025?No won
- Will RFK end Influenza vaccine recommendation in 2025?No won
- Will RFK end Polio vaccine recommendation in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.