Us Politics · resolved market
Will RFK end Influenza vaccine recommendation in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4538fcac39df73ef252a673b1431fd7bc1c7ddedb31794b364241c5ca9e7ee8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,349
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,670
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,349 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c3b…3ad8backed Yes | 19c | 1,020$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.1 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec40…fce5backed No | 77c | 925.79$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.93 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…81b1backed No | 77c | 879$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.6 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 15c | 783$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.63 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 20c | 652$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.48 | 130 | 29.2%38 W · 92 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed Yes | 6c | 600.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 22c | 600$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes | 8c | 445.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 98 | 10.2%10 W · 88 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 419$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 19c | 315.78$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…6d4abacked Yes | 13c | 303$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91b9…dcd8backed No | 77c | 279.99$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.6 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb4…21c1backed Yes | 21c | 270$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 19c | 251$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.64 | 159 | 24.5%39 W · 120 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36be…ea28backed Yes | 18c | 202.31$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 6c | 175$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcd…2107backed Yes | 18c | 160$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 77c | 141.19$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4391…61d8backed Yes | 18c | 135.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 77 | 24.7%19 W · 58 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 14c | 87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +10.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed Yes | 26c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will RFK end Influenza vaccine recommendation in 2025?this page
- Will RFK end COVID-19 vaccine recommendation in 2025?No won
- Will RFK end HPV vaccine recommendation in 2025?No won
- Will RFK end Hepatitis B vaccine recommendation in 2025?No won
- Will RFK end Measles Mumps and Rubella vaccine recommendation in 2025?No won
- Will RFK end Polio vaccine recommendation in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.