Us Politics · resolved market
Will RFK end HPV vaccine recommendation in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x927d39ac9a0a2a1ccc59683aa05af679b5c758fb5443131e847c9dd59e81d6a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $316,492
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $317,201
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $316,492 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x642c…cd5dbacked No | 77c | 72,931$56,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,774.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x561d…4912backed Yes | 23c | 72,931$16,774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,774.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d20…a7c9backed No | 77c | 71,689$55,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,488.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83bd…148dbacked Yes | 23c | 71,689$16,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,488.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 3c | 7,201$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.14 | 129 | 10.9%14 W · 115 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…5204backed Yes | 3c | 5,650$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.72 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 77c | 1,354$1,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.75 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 1c | 910$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb4…21c1backed Yes | 22c | 700$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.02 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 21c | 600$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 22c | 584$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.72 | 130 | 29.2%38 W · 92 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 77c | 493.85$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.98 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 351.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 5c | 237$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7a…b5f7backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 21c | 199.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 77 | 24.7%19 W · 58 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91b9…dcd8backed No | 74c | 158.8$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 24c | 130$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 77c | 120$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 98 | 10.2%10 W · 88 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 23c | 83.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed Yes | 13c | 82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4391…61d8backed Yes | 26c | 77.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 23c | 77.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0a…addbbacked Yes | 16c | 74.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c52…f01fbacked No | 78c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed No | 75c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4508…9134backed Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…12f6backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 56 | 73.2%41 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x274a…3f46backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 72c | 17.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will RFK end HPV vaccine recommendation in 2025?this page
- Will RFK end COVID-19 vaccine recommendation in 2025?No won
- Will RFK end Hepatitis B vaccine recommendation in 2025?No won
- Will RFK end Influenza vaccine recommendation in 2025?No won
- Will RFK end Measles Mumps and Rubella vaccine recommendation in 2025?No won
- Will RFK end Polio vaccine recommendation in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.